Grass is greener outside top seeds

Posted by Glenn Cullen on Jun 25, 2012 in Tennis | 0 comments

With the ‘Novak Slam’ off the table for now is there more or less pressure on the world No.1 to win Wimbledon? That’s the $2.50 question at Sportingbet. His short odds reflect the fact he’s still in outstanding form. There’s very little value in the ‘big three’ of Djokovic, Nadal ($3.25) and Federer ($4.50) with good reason: They’ve won 28 of the last 29 grand slam finals.

Outside of the chosen three, Andy Murray ($13) will surely win a slam given his quality, but for a man that’s prone to battling demons don’t expect the breakthrough in front of a British crowd.

If fit don’t discount Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ($29); the big Frenchman held four match points against Djokovic at Roland Garros as well as downed Federer at Wimbledon last year.

Canadian up and comer Milos Raonic’s ($34) game looks tailor-made for a title here; but is still a little green while big serving John Isner ($67) is vastly improved though his return of serve still lacks.

The Aussie men? Lleyton Hewitt ($1001) will be itching for a fight with Tsonga (who apparently has a finger injury) in round one so consider getting on the South Australian to pick up a set. A win looks a huge stretch though. Bernard Tomic ($126) is a quarter-finalist from 2011 and 20^th seed. Grass is his favourite surface but he hasn’t been in great touch.

In the women’s it’s hard to go past Maria Sharapova ($3.75). Serena Williams comes in at the same price. It may sound silly but at $34 Sam Stosur is long enough to consider. Yes, her form on grass is as sketchy as her mental state but if she gets through the first week that price looks tasty.

So, where to for value? As always look at your match-ups and research relative capabilities on grass. In round one, for instance, eighth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic ($1.70) is favoured to beat David Nalbandian ($2.15). But the Argentine is a former finalist, is one of the best service returners on tour and is in form on the surface. Assuming he doesn’t default for injuring a linesman, he’s worth considering in the head-to-head.

With three outstanding players, a section of the draw becomes more open. While Murray is a $2.20 favourite to win his quarter-final, three-time finalist Andy Roddick represents good value at $21 to make the last four from the group.

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