ATP Australian Open Betting Preview
Latest Odds – HERE
The lead up tournaments are over, the exhibitions have been run and won and now it’s time for the real thing to get going. The Australian Open kicks off Monday at 11am and Sportingbet is offering a range of markets for punters to sink their teeth into.
The question on everyone’s mind is who will lift that trophy at the end of a long and closely contested two weeks. As usual the big four will all be in the mix and leading the charge is defending champion Novak Djokovic ($2.25).
His preparation has been quiet, which is a good thing given that towards the end of last year he began to look understandably tired.
A fourth round encounter against Canadian young gun Milos Raonic and a quarter final against David Ferrer may test him along the way but realistically the
Serb will be in the final four, most likely against Andy Murray ($6.50) in a semi-final.
Britain’s only hope brings with him a new coach to Melbourne, Ivan Lendl, and tennis history is littered with players who change coaches and have near immediate success.
Lendl may not be saying anything new to Murray, he is probably telling the Scot to flatten his ground stokes out and to be more attacking on big points, but hearing that from a new voice may just be the kick Murray needs.
Last year he made the final here without playing particularly well throughout the tournament. This year he looks good in the lead up, putting on a clinic in
Brisbane and could be on the verge of a break through.
The bottom half of the draw is home to one of the great rivalries in tennis, Roger Federer ($5) and Rafael Nadal ($6.50).
Federer finished 2011 in cracking form, winning three best of three set tournaments including the World Tour Finals. However, the knock on him is whether he will get through seven consecutive best of five set matches.
At last year’s Wimbledon and US Open the champ led two sets to love over Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Novak Djokovic but could not close either match out.
There is also the matter of a back injury, which makes Federer a dangerous option. He will be in the mix but if any of the big four were to fall early, he is the
most likely.
By anyone else’s standards Nadal had a cracking 2011, winning one slam and making two finals. By his own standard though it was poor. He struggled through a variety of matches and looked out of sorts for months on end but the key thing was he still won.
The same goes here. He may have to battle away through some tough encounters against John Isner and Tomas Berdych but he will get to at least the semi finals on guts and determination and that’s the sort of player you want your money on.
He also has a limited number of points to defend so once he gets to a quarter final, the pressure is off and the Spaniard can play his best freewheeling
tennis.
Outside the big four there are two players capable of competing with and beating the best. Tsonga ($19) and Juan Martin Del Potro ($17) have the firepower and experience to cause trouble.
Del Potro has shown glimpses of returning to his US Open winning best. Although New York may be a better fit for him, being on the Federer/ Nadal side of the draw gives him a fighting chance.
Tsonga has outstanding form in Australia having made a final and a semi and has the crowd behind him in every match he plays. Being on the Murray/ Djokovic side is a tough ask but if he gets hot anything is possible.
Best bet: Djokovic ($2.25)
Good chance: Murray ($6.50) Nadal ($6.50)
Best outsiders: Tsonga ($19) Del Potro ($17)
Quarter Winners
If there is a player you’ve got in mind who you think could go on a run but isn’t good enough to win the title then this market is the place to bet. All
the player needs to do is make a semi final.
Keep in mind the winner will need to have some weapons because they will most likely need to take out a big seed.
First Quarter-Milos Raonic ($15)
The young Canadian has a massive serve which took him all the way to the fourth round in Melbourne last year. He also has one of the best temperaments on the tour and will not be overawed by the occasion.
Second Quarter- Tsonga ($3.50) Gael Monfils ($10)
The French double have every shot in the book. There are concentration issues surrounding Monfils but he is coming in with no expectation this year, which could be just what he needs.
He has already notched up a win over Nadal this year in Doha and will be looking to add to that in Melbourne.
Third Quarter- Bernard Tomic ($15)
There is so much hype surrounding the Australian and for good reason. He will win a slam one day but it won’t be here. However, he could find himself deep in the tournament. Sportingbet is also offering a market surrounding when Tomic will be eliminated and a semi final loss is good value at ($51).
Fourth Quarter- Marcos Baghdatis ($15) and John Isner ($17)
Baghdatis has the form in Australia and Isner has the best serve on the tour. If Nadal is to fall early it may be to one of these two.
Men’s and Women’s Double
If you think it’s easy to pick the winner of one side of the draw, why not show how good you are by picking both.
There are a number of good value selections but the standout is Andy Murray into VictoriaAzarenka at ($46). Azarenka is bringing a new attitude to the tour, which may be the difference between her being a good player and a great player.
Sportingbet will also be providing head to head markets and with 64 men’s matches on day one and two; there are plenty of chances to come up with good multi bets.
First round value players to win their matches are: David Nalbandian ($1.70), Xavier Malisse ($1.52), Juan Monaco ($2.50), Victor Hanescu ($1.97) and Juan Ignacio Chela ($1.80).
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