So Man City are top at Christmas. Now what?
Manchester United Manager Sir Alex Ferguson looks on as Manchester City Manager Roberto Mancini gestures during the Carling Cup Semi Final match.
You’ve probably heard the stat by now: in five of the past seven seasons, the team that sat atop the English Premier League at Christmas went on to win the whole shebang. That obviously bodes well for City, who held a two-point buffer over United at the seemingly pivotal checkpoint (the first time they’ve been top at Christmas since 1929), but it should also be noted that in the 19-year history of the EPL, the team in the No.1 spot on December 25 has only gone on to be crowned champion eight times.
At the same juncture in the 2010-11 campaign, United held a five-point edge over their Manchester rivals with two games in hand. The two teams then had very similar back halves, with United taking 43 points of a possible 66 and City 39 of a possible 60. United’s superior start essentially got them home.
What we don’t need the stats to tell us is that this will be a race between two. Following this week’s post-Christmas fixtures, Tottenham is the only other team keeping pace, trailing both City and United by seven points with a game in hand. But even with Spurs’ impressive squad and brilliant start, the class gap is too great.
What is also apparent is that this race between two will be tight. With both teams out of the Champions League, Sir Alex Ferguson and Roberto Mancini will be spared the juggling act that is rotating their squads, and can focus on one trophy.
So who has the edge at this point? Despite their pedigree and experience, United’s injury woes – particularly defensively – are a huge concern. And as strange as it is to say it, the Red Devils do not have the depth of talent in their squad that their sky blue counterparts boast. City will be stung by the loss of Toure brothers Yaya and Kolo, especially the former, to the African Cup of Nations, but Mancini has the luxury of calling on England internationals Gareth Barry and Joleon Lescott as replacements. That’s handy.
Can City – outright favourites with Sportingbet at $1.80 – go all the way and take out their first top-flight championship title since 1968? What about United at $2.25?
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