RWC Semi Final – Australia v New Zealand
Australia v New ZealandEden Park, Auckland
Sunday 16th October 2011.
Twitchy, nervy, edgy.
Not adjectives normally associated with New Zealand in the build-up to a key rugby fixture, but definitely an accurate description of the atmosphere that has engulfed the land of the long white cloud ahead of Sunday’s semi-final against Australia.
Even the calculating words of uber-confident All Blacks coach Graham Henry and his erstwhile sidekick Steve Hansen have failed to reassure the Kiwi public that yet another World Cup heartache is not on the cards at Eden Park on Sunday.
And it’s not hard to see why.
The Wallabies have of course won three of the last four meetings between the two old Bledisloe Cup foes, Dan Carter has already limped his way out of the tournament and the All Blacks’ other talisman, Richie McCaw, is clearly not firing on all cylinders as he battles to overcome a nagging foot injury.
Then throw in the fact that the home side have somehow contrived to fail to win rugby’s showpiece event since 1987 despite being installed as the favourites for every one of those tournaments and it soon becomes apparent why so many Kiwis are fearing the worst.
The rugby-mad nation will literally grind to a halt when the game gets underway on Sunday and it will be fascinating to see how the All Blacks react to the double-edged sword that is their wonderful support and the incredible pressure to perform that comes with it.
There were no real surprises in Henry’s squad announcement on Friday, with Aaron Cruden selected at number ten, Richard Kahui replacing Sonny-Bill Williams on the wing and Israel Dagg coming in for the luckless Mils Muliaina at full-back.
Having Piri Weepu alongside him will doubtless help the inexperienced Cruden in what will be by far the biggest game of his fledgling career and he will also be reassured by the familiar presence of several other of his former Hurricanes team-mates in the outside backs.
Should Cruden crumble under the pressure, the reliable Stephen Donald has been named on a strong-looking bench that also includes the likes of Ali Williams, Andrew Hore and Victor Vito.
But enough about the men in black, what about Robbie Deans’ side who have taken their supporters on something of a roller-coaster ride through the tournament so far?
From satisfaction with the win over Italy, to despair at the defeat against Ireland and then euphoria following the nail-biting victory over South Africa with plenty of injury dramas along the way, Aussie fans could be forgiven for feeling more than a little emotionally drained at this stage.
And yet the Wallabies players have appeared decidedly laid-back over the last few days, gleefully diverting the pressure onto their hosts at every given opportunity.
Quade Cooper is of course the man most under pressure from a green and gold perspective and as ever with the Queensland maverick, it’s all but impossible to know how he will react.
In terms of encouraging signs, he rarely has two poor games on the trot, has an abundance of self-confidence and faith in his own abilities and relishes the big occasion.
And the bottom line is he surely cannot play as poorly again on Sunday as he did against the Springboks.
He really could do nothing right in that arm-wrestle in Wellington and the harder he tried, the worse he got.
There remains, however, a nagging feeling that Cooper may just have one magical, match-winning performance in him at this tournament and Deans will be praying that that performance is wheeled out at Eden Park.
If Cooper was the villain of the piece last week, David Pocock was the hero.
Now being branded the jackal at the tackle in some quarters, if the Western Force colossus can edge his battle with McCaw, it could just turn the game in the Wallabies’ favour.
The Aussies’ only major injury concern this week has been Kurtley Beale and given that he reportedly has a grade one hamstring tear, it is encouraging that he has even been bracketed as a possible starter.
Should he fail the latest of late fitness tests, Anthony Faingaa will slot into the centres, with Adam Ashley-Cooper moving to full-back and while that change would certainly not weaken the side defensively, there really is no substitute for the attacking threat posed by the new Rebels recruit.
If Faingaa gets the nod to start, Rob Horne will be handed a place on the bench and elsewhere among the replacements Deans has rather surprisingly opted for Rob Simmons ahead of the more experienced and more imposing Nathan Sharpe.
It is a particularly cruel blow for the Western Force veteran who now remains stranded on 99 caps.
Otherwise, the squad remains unchanged from that selected for the quarter-final.
In terms of their gameplan, the main priority for the Wallabies on Sunday simply must be to retain possession far better than they did last weekend because unlike the lumbering South Africans, the All Blacks have enough pace to slice them open if handed the opportunity.
Up front, Deans’ men won’t be dominant in the scrum but should be able to just about achieve parity, while in the line-out James Horwill and Dan Vickerman will surely perform better against Brad Thorn and Sam Whitelock after being terrorised by the awesome Victor Matfield in the quarter-final.
A calm, calculating approach is required from Will Genia, meanwhile, especially if his half-back partner endures some difficult early moments and the midfield battle between Pat McCabe and Adam Ashley-Cooper or Anthony Faingaa and Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith promises to be a beauty.
Digby Ione will also have key role to play not only with ball in hand, but also defensively and the Queensland man will also have to take on more responsibility should Beale be absent.
The kick-chase from the Wallabies’ back three must be vigorous enough to prevent the All Blacks from launching the kind of open-field, broken play attacks at which they are so proficient.
The home side, meanwhile, will inevitably aim to make the same kind of barnstorming start to the game that left Australia reeling on their last visit to Eden Park back in August and the Wallabies won’t need reminding that they have not won at this venue since 1986, or that their last five games overseen by Sunday’s referee Craig Joubert have all ended in defeat.
The men in green and gold showed against South Africa that they can defend stoutly for long periods without the ball, but the All Blacks boast more plentiful and more potent attacking options than the Springboks and another 80 minutes of rope-a-dope rugby will simply not earn Deans’ men the same result.
They have to fight fire with fire and take the game to their hosts, but even if they do, New Zealand’s very slight edge in overall quality may enable them to squeak home.
Prediction: New Zealand 24-19 Australia
First try-scorer: Piri Weepu
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