RWC Bronze Playoff – Australia v Wales Preview
Bronze Final Australia v Wales
Eden Park, Auckland
Friday 21st October 2011.
Re-branding the Third/Fourth Place Play-Off as the Bronze Final is not fooling anyone.
This is still a game the players don’t really want to play in and even the most die-hard supporters struggle to get excited about.
Only full-on rugby anoraks would be able to name all the sides who finished third and fourth respectively at previous tournaments and yet that is exactly why these games often provide great entertainment for those who do bother to watch them.
With the serious pressure lifted, the players often relax, cut loose and play the kind of high-risk, high-reward rugby all too often stifled by the tension of the pool and knockout phases.
In short, if ever a game was made for Quade Cooper, this is it.
The Queensland number ten has endured a bitterly disappointing tournament at a personal level, but on Friday he has the opportunity to put all the criticism of his defence, his kicking game and his decision-making behind him and re-open the bag of tricks that made him all but unplayable at times during this year’s Super 15 campaign.
Another man with a point to prove is Nathan Sharpe who will win his 100th cap after being named to start alongside James Horwill in the second-row.
Quite why the in-form Western Force man was not chosen ahead of the clearly not fully fit Dan Vickerman for last week’s semi-final against the All Blacks remains a mystery, but at least one of the game’s greatest servants will finish his last World Cup on the pitch rather than kicking his heels in the stands.
Robbie Deans has made several other changes, some of them enforced by injury and others to reward the fringe squad players with some game time.
James Slipper, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Salesi Ma’afu will form an entirely new front row and there are a further two alterations in the back row where Scott Higginbotham and Ben McCalman come in for Rocky Elsom and Radike Samo respectively.
In the backs, meanwhile, Kurtley Beale makes a welcome return at full-back and Berrick Barnes will start at inside-centre in place of the battered and bruised Pat McCabe.
Wales have also made changes in the wake of their heart-breaking and controversial defeat at the hands of France.
Paul James replaces the injured Duncan Jones at tight-head prop, Ryan Jones comes in for suspended skipper Sam Warburton, with Toby Faletau switching from number eight to openside flanker to accommodate the Ospreys man and Bradley Davies will partner Luke Charteris in the second-row in place of Alun Wyn Jones.
Coach Warren Gatland has named an unchanged back division, opting to retain the services of James Hook at outside-half despite the utility-back’s woeful display against the French.
First-choice number ten Rhys Priestland unfortunately remains sidelined by injury, meaning that Stephen Jones will again feature on the bench.
In terms of how the game will unfold, it’s fair to say that this will be as much a mental as a physical battle.
Can Australia lift after the crushing disappointment of both their performance and the result against the All Blacks?
Will it be possible for Wales to overcome the pain of knowing that with a competent referee and more accuracy off the kicking tee, they would have seen off a desperately limited France side and would be returning to Eden Park on Sunday, not Friday, to face New Zealand?
Tired minds and tired bodies will be the order of the day and it may simply be a case of the side that is slightly less exhausted coming out on top.
The Welsh defence has been superb throughout this tournament, so good in fact that France essentially gave up trying to breach it even with an extra man on the field during the second-half of last week’s semi-final.
The Wallabies will therefore have to be at their dangerous best with ball in hand and the return of Beale will certainly provide them with a major boost in that area.
Wales’ kick-chase was very slack in the France game and that will not have gone unnoticed by Beale, James O’Connor and Digby Ione who will all look to exploit any gaps that appear in broken play.
The Welsh centres Jonathan Davies and Jamie Roberts have been arguably the most effective pairing of the tournament, however and they will test out Barnes’ perceived defensive frailties right from the off.
Up front, meanwhile, the Welsh pack will fancy its chances of giving the Aussies a bloody nose at the scrum, but may be more vulnerable in the line-out where Sharpe will place them under immense pressure by furiously contesting every single throw.
And then there’s the back-row showdown where even without Warburton, Wales are not short of physicality or quality and will give David Pocock and co plenty to think about.
It really is a desperately difficult game to call and it would come as no surprise if the result ends up being as close as it was when the two sides contested this fixture back in 1987 and the Aussies lost a nail-biter in Rotorua by 22 points to 21.
In terms of psychological damage, Deans’ men may be slightly less shattered due to the fact that they at least lost their semi-final to the better side and could have no complaints about the result.
The Welsh, understandably, may well be in a darker place altogether and that could ultimately prove to be the difference between the two sides.
Prediction: Australia 21-18 Wales
First try-scorer: Scott Higginbotham
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