Reds in uphill battle to make Super finals
The Reds line up before their round 17 Super Rugby match with the Highlanders at Suncorp Stadium on 6 July 2012 in Brisbane.
The Reds may have come home with a wet sail but it’s unlikely they’ll be headed into the sunset with it. The Super Rugby defending champions have won their past five games and you would have to bank on them making it six in a row when they play the Waratahs at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday.
Still, the likelihood is they’re not going to be able to defend their title (the Reds are currently at $29). Untimely injuries and a sluggish start haven’t helped, but the lack of bonus points hurts.
The Reds (53 points) may well finish with more wins than two teams who will likely make the final—the Bulls and the Sharks.
The advantage for both (each is on 54 points) going into the final round is twofold. The Bulls will play the last-placed Lions in Pretoria and the Sharks also enjoy a home game in Durban against the tenth-placed Cheetahs. Bonus points are in the mix for both and if achieved will almost certainly leave the Reds out of the finals regardless of the score against NSW. The prospective South African finalists also have the advantage of knowing exactly what they have to do given they feature in the last two matches of the round.
A loss by the Brumbies (58 points) against the Blues and the Crusaders (56 points) to the Force would open another door for the Reds but neither is likely.
The Tahs match will be an arm wrestle. The Queenslanders want a bonus point but the last time they achieved that in this interstate grudge match was in 2003.
Where their wins will be a factor is if they finish on equal points with another team in the six. Unlike many other football competitions, the default for Super Rugby when teams are tied after the regular season is not points differential but overall victories.
So what will happen?
For mine, the Stormers (62 points) will break the shackles and get a bonus win over the tired Rebels to tip the Chiefs (63 points) from first. The Waikato side will down the Hurricanes (53 points) but it will be tight, because the Wellington side remain mathematical chances of making the six. The Brumbies will win and top the Australian conference, while the Crusaders will snatch fourth. Unfortunately for the Reds, the Bulls and Sharks will get over the line.
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The Reds will make it a recent trifecta agains NSW.
Origin, G20 and the last (and least) nail in the coffin, burying to 2012 Waratahs. I hope I’m wrong though, but I just don’t see the Waratahs putting it together at SunCorp to spoil it for the Reds.
Unfortunately for the Reds, someone else will as the South Africans take care of business and stay in front to make the finals.