MAKYBE DIVA TIP – VIGOR – Race 7 TAB No. 9 [Flemington]
Peaked on his run when resuming and will strip fitter here. Will get the
chance to get the O’Brien/Winks combo off to a flyer.

BEST BET – THESEO- Race 5 TAB No.1 [Randwick]
He grows a leg second-up and should get a soft lead which will see
Nash Rawiller dictate the terms to suit.

BEST VALUE – SMOKIN’ JOEY- Race 6 TAB No.5 [Caulfield]
Competitive against Pressday in Brisbane and while unproven in the
wet you’d think he’d be suited.

THE LAY – PRAECIDO – Race 7 TAB No.4 [Randwick]
A significant doubt in the wet and has disappointed this campaign.

BEST-BACKED – PARABLES – Race 4 TAB No.1 [Randwick]
$2.70 into $2.40 with the money still coming.

Race 1

An extremely competitive race to start the day. Legsman is on the quick back up but has never won over further than 1900 and despite having Nash on doesn’t look great value. Pay And Play won well last start and should handle the step up. Lost For Words is racing in career best form and handles the wet well. Buccaneer’s Pride caught the eye over an unsuitable distance and in a much harder race last time and is by wet track sire Montjeu.

Selection: Buccaneers Pride
Roughie: Spence – This grey is racing better than ever and meets a similar field to what he’s been beating. Would be far shorter if trained by a big name trainer so is over the odds.

Race 2
Kiss From A Rose created a big impression in winning two midweekers last year before bleeding when placed under pressure in a listed race. She is fit after two barrier trials but it is worth remembering her last win was in a 3yo restricted midweek Benchmark 68 – That makes her way under the odds for mine. Ofcourseican is racing very well but does step up in class. Dystopia is realising the promise she has always shown but despite Avdulla’s claim is still up significantly in weight. Royal Commands may have been sent to Sydney to get off the wet tracks and could be out of luck in this regard. This race is a big caution.
Selection: Dystopia
Roughie: Cloudy Morning – Ran a nose second to Swift Alliance just over a year ago and would blow these away if she produced anything close to that. Has had a freshen up, drops back in class and handles the wet so looks over the odds.

Race 3
Reprobate is building an imposing record and looks a horse on the up. Little Surfer Girl produced an outstanding run from behind to beat a good field first up and the stable has always had big wraps on her. New Day Rising will be advantaged by an on pace bias and shows promise. How Much My Love is a touch inconsistent but does have a heap of ability and can win this.
Selection: New Day Rising
Roughie: Gathering – Has only won once but placed in races such as the Spring Champion. Gets in with 58kg after Adams’ claim and can surprise.

Race 4
Parables looked sensational when resuming and whatever beats her will win. More Strawberries ran a nice race resuming and will get better the further they go. Amber’s Waltz looked like she needed the last run and will improve.
Selection: Parables
Roughie: Divorces – Stablemate of the favourite and wouldn’t be surprised if she contests races like the Wakeful and possibly VRC Oaks later this campaign. If they can run on she will be getting home hard.

Race 5
Theseo always performs second up and should get a soft lead. Metal Bender has come on in leaps and bounds and has strong claims. Triple Honour was game in defeat and can turn the tables on his stablemate. Purple went well first up and comes into it the more the track gets rain affected.
Selection: Theseo
Roughie: Run For Naara: probably getting ready for the Cups but does tend to improve second up. Is a query on softer tracks but is a blowout chance.

Race 6
A wide open Tramway. Neeson resumed in good style and will strip fitter on the minimum. Stryker is also on the up and gets in on the same weight. Sacred Choice caught the eye when resuming and is up to this. Drumbeats has a good record over this distance.
Selection: Neeson
Roughie: Would not at all be surprised at a blowout in this and settling on Keepin’ The Dream – doesn’t win too often but gets in on the minimum and should get a sweet run just behind the pace.

Race 7
Praecido has been a little disappointing this time in but suited by a slight drop in class. Sea Lord shows a heap of potential and gets his chance to break through. Testarythmn gets a nice little weight drop but rises in class. Howdiddydoit won well last time and could go on with it.
Selection: Praecido
Roughie: Nextanix – Has had one run back from a freshen and suited by the trip. If he gets a run he can surprise.

Race 8
Could be a tough race to get out in as there are a number of query runners. Star Of Octagonal created the impression that he’s a star of the future last time in and usually sprints well fresh. Fist Of Fury has been off the scene for a year but was the boom horse at one stage. Tromso never seems to run a bad race. Cardinal Virtue ran a good race last time for the new stable and does have ability.
Selection: Fist Of Fury
Roughie: Bay Window – Has placed first up and has a very good wet track record. Can surprise with the right run.

Ed Dycueco gives the good oil on this weekend’s last round of NRL matches

Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders @ Suncorp Stadium – Friday 7:35pm

The Broncos are reeling after their 36-4 loss to the Warriors last week. In an error riddled performance, they missed almost as many tackles as they conceded points, and have made survival in the 2010 competition a most difficult proposition.

If the Broncos want to play on, they must win against Canberra by at least 15 points, then hope and pray that the Dragons can knock off Souths on Sunday night. It’s a tough ask. Led by wrecking balls David Shillington and Tom Learoyd-Lars, the Raiders pulled out all the stops against the Cowboys last week and look hungry for more.

Although the Raiders have a terrible record at Suncop and will be missing their leader Alan Tongue, it is impossible to ignore their form. They have momentum on their side with four wins on the trot, and are desperate to be the team to send the still Lockyer-less Broncos packing.  Raiders by 13+

Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers @ Skilled Park – Friday 7:35pm

The Tigers were one point victors when they met the Titans last in round 18. Only the foresight and downright genius of Benji Marshall could separate the two teams at the end of the day – he slotted a massive field goal on half time which proved to be the difference. Expect another show-stopping  match between two clubs desperate to end their regular season with a win.

The Tigers make preparations for their first finals assault since 2005, and can wrap up second spot on the ladder with a win. The Titans could steal second as well, but only if they win and other results fall their way. Their major concern will be to win to seal up a home final.

Greg Bird moves to the bench, while a brave Anthony Laffranchi reclaims his spot in the second row. Laffranchi has been hampered with shoulder problems, but is clear to play this week. Not so fortunate is front rower Luke Bailey who failed to recover after surgery to his fractured thumb. Chris Lawrence leads a list of big outs for the Tigers after an expensive win over Melboune last week. He will be joined on the sidelines by Wade McKinnon and John Skandalis. Titans by 1-12.

Parramatta Eels v New Zealand Warriors @ Parramatta Stadium – Saturday 5:30pm

The Warriors put Brisbane through the shredder last week, annihilating them all over the park in a 32 point drubbing at Mt Smart Stadium. The last time the Warriors met the Eels was in round 17, and they beat Parra in a similar vein.

So the signs are looking ominous for the Eels in their curtain call for 2010. They face one more hurdle this year before they can step back and implement a full post-mortem on their season and plan for the new season. However, their 2011 blueprint will not include Krisnan Inu and Feleti Mateo who ironically will be playing for the Warriors next year.

The Warriors have named a largely unchanged side and bring form into the match, having won three of their last four. They should approach the Eels with caution though, the home crowd will be making a lot of noise for their outbound leader Nathan Cayless – and we all saw what that did for the Sharks last week. New Zealand by 1-12.

North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters @ Dairy Farmers Stadium – Saturday 7:30pm

The Roosters got their groove back last week against Manly, with centre Shaun Kenny-Dowall stealing the show by notching up a hat-trick. While it was yet another match marred by refereeing controversy, it was significant nonetheless for the Roosters who hadn’t posted a win since round 21.

Unfortunately Cowboys supporters, the Roosters will be looking to start their finals campaign on a high note – and that could happen at your expense.  In recent history, North Queensland have the wood over the Roosters, victorious in their last three encounters. But the Cowboys have looked stranded without Johnathan Thurston and will struggle to make an impact. It’s unlikely that even a sense of occasion will provide a lift, as Matt Bowen celebrates his 200th game.

While a win would put the Roosters in good stead for a home final, it’s razor close in the top eight and a loss could see them fall as low as eighth at the end of the round. Anthony Minichello makes his return to the Roosters from injury, but Daniel Conn is out after a high shot on Brent Kite last week.  Aaron Payne starts at half for the Cowboys, while Bowen returns to his familiar role at fullback. Roosters by 13+.

Penrith Panthers v Cronulla Sharks @ CUA Stadium – Saturday 7:30pm

The Sharks responded again to their critics by knocking off top four prospects the Titans last week, in turn giving their fans a glimmer of hope for season 2011. Can the giant killers do it again this week? Cronulla have looked sharper since they sorted out their coaching crisis, and are keen to repeat against the Panthers.

It will be fascinating to see how Penrith front up to Cronulla without their leading man Petero Civoniceva. The evergreen prop paid the price on Monday for a high shot on Canterbury’s Gary Warburton, and won’t play until week two of the finals. Penrith half Luke Walsh will also be missed, he is recovering from an ankle injury sustained in the same match.

Cronulla’s biggest chance of victory will be found right up the middle. If their all-star forward line can sniff out a weakness in the Panther defence, it could lay the foundation for an unlikely win. Unfortunately for the Sharks, the Panthers have plenty of points in them, and their home crowd should help carry them over the line. Panthers by 1-12.

Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights @ AAMI Park – Sunday 2:00pm

This is the only genuine dead rubber of the round, but try telling the Melbourne Storm that this game means nothing. As their season from hell comes to a close, it’s time for the Melbourners to celebrate at an AAMI Park filled to the brim with delirious fans holding $1 tickets.

In all seriousness though, the Storm are truly in the driver’s seat for this one, and should control things from the word go. The match marks the farewell of six of their most loyal servants, who will play their last game in purple before the team is dismantled in a bid to become salary cap compliant.

The Knights will go without skipper Kurt Gidley, who suffered a knee injury in last week’s 26-18 loss to the Dragons. They will also miss fullback Shannon McDonnell who is still out with a hamstring problem. Storm by 13+.

Manly Sea Eagles v Canterbury Bulldogs @ Brookvale Oval – Sunday 3:00pm

The Sea Eagles come into this match as reluctant favourite, and are really lacking the momentum they need to start their finals tilt. The Brookvale club could turn it around on Sunday afternoon, but they will have to do it without influential back rower Glenn Stewart, who has been scrubbed for a late hit on Roosters lock Braith Anasta.

Stewart could make a return from the four match ban if the Eagles make the Grand Final, but nobody at the club would dare dream ahead that far. In reality, there is a small chance the Eagles could miss the finals boat completely should they lose this game. While the prospect completely mathematical, and relies on the result of the Dragons v Souths game, it is a path Manly will want to avoid.

While the Bulldogs will be keen to send Brett Kimmorley, Luke Patten and Ben Hannant off on a winning note, Manly have it all to play for and should seal their season off with a win. Manly by 1-12.

St George Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs @ WIN Jubilee Stadium – Sunday 7:00pm

The Dragons have wrapped up one piece of silverware already, but their thoughts are squarely on the big prize.  The minor premiers won’t hold back against the Rabbitohs, after doing well to contain a late charge by the Knights last week.

Things aren’t as clear cut for South Sydney, and their prospects of progressing to the finals rely on a win in this game, plus the results of other fixtures. They boosted their claim at a crack at the finals with a win against Parramatta last week, but this week they face quality opposition in hostile territory.

While injury and suspension continues to do dog other clubs, the Dragons seem blissfully unaffected by it all. They welcome back Beau Scott to the team this week who has recovered from a hamstring injury after missing two matches. He should provide some extra muscle to an already threatening Dragons side. St George Illawarra by 13+.

Where does the year go?

The AFL finals are here and Ben waterworth takes us through the first week’s matches

Geelong v St.Kilda: Friday 3/9 – 7.45pm at MCG
RECENT FORM:
If anyone doubted Geelong’s hunger to win a third flag in four years, they were wrong. Since losing to Collingwood by 22 points in Round 19 earlier this season, the Cats have been in ominous form and seem more determined than ever to win a premiership. They won their final three matches against the Western Bulldogs, Carlton and West Coast by an average of 62 points.
The Saints played it safe last weekend – and who could blame them. They trailed Adelaide by just one point at quarter time until Coach Ross Lyon ordered his team to back off in intensity and play with a lot more caution to avoid any serious injuries before the finals series. As a consequence they lost to the Crows by 29 points, but now have a full-strength line-up for tonight’s match.
KEY PLAYERS:
You’ve got to love the way Joel Selwood goes about his business on the field. He’s a tough, nuggetty and inspirational midfielder who personifies on field leadership. But stats show that Selwood has struggled slightly in his few finals appearances so far. If he can rectify that problem and perform anywhere near his best tonight, he could singlehandedly win the game for the Cats.
Brendon Goddard is a class player and has enjoyed an outstanding season so far. He’s a great mark, has the ability to play virtually anywhere on the ground, but, most importantly, is a long, accurate and direct kick of the footy. If Goddard can use that kick to his advantage in the wet conditions, St.Kilda will already be halfway to winning the game.
WHO WINS:
Who could forget last year’s Grand Final between these two teams. It was one of the most brutal games in recent history, setting records for the highest amount of contested possessions and tackles in a game. It was wet and cold, but the Cats emerged victorious in the end. However Saints small forwards Stephen Milne and Adam Schneider exposed the Geelong defence in Round 13 earlier this year by using their elusive speed and sneaky goal sense to help their team to a 26-point win.
But Geelong coach Mark Thompson said earlier this week that his team has never been in better shape before a finals series, despite their unbelievable success over the past three years. Even without key forward James Podsiadly, the Cats’ team chemistry and belief in their own ability should see them advance straight through to a preliminary final.
BEST BET:
Geelong by 1-24 ($3.25)

Fremantle v Hawthorn: Saturday 4/9 – 1.20pm at Subiaco Oval
RECENT FORM:
Fremantle had close to its full-strength team back last weekend and produced a tough six-point win over Carlton. While it was a far from convincing victory, there were still plenty of good signs for the Dockers. Most notable was the performance of ruckman Aaron Sandilands, who returned for his first game in three weeks and dominated the Blues’ ruck division with 20 possessions, 40 hitouts and 13 clearances.
As I said in last week’s preview, we would get a real sense of where Hawthorn stood at as a team after its match against Collingwood. And after defeating the Pies by three points, we now know that the Hawks are more than capable of matching it with the best. They pounced on Collingwood’s missed opportunities and stood up when the game needed to be won. Lance Franklin exposed the Magpies’ defence, playing deep in the forward line and booting through six goals – in his best haul for the year so far.
KEY PLAYERS:
For such a talented player, Matthew Pavlich probably doesn’t receive the respect he deserves, mainly because he doesn’t play for a Victorian club. But the Fremantle skipper has a golden opportunity to make a name for himself against the Hawks on Saturday with a big finals performance. If Pavlich gets his hands on the ball early, not only will he lift, but the whole side will grow in confidence as well.
He may not be their best player, but Clinton Young might just be the Hawks’ most important player. If it wasn’t for a hamstring injury after halftime in the 2008 Grand Final, Young might well have won the Norm Smith Medal for the best player on the ground that day. His pace around the ground is deceptive and his long kicking inside the forward 50 exposes defenders matched up on Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, forcing them to panic and make crucial mistakes.
WHO WINS:
Before this season began, very few predicted the Dockers would play in the finals. But they have defied the critics and now find themselves hosting a home final. Full credit must go to the Fremantle board for persisting with coach Mark Harvey and for believing in his ability. However the fairytale run ends here.
Hawthorn have been there and done it before, while the Dockers are young and uncertain of what to expect in a finals match. The Hawks regain inspirational leader Luke Hodge, a man that many believe can win this year’s Brownlow medal. If they can curb Sandilands’ influence in the ruck, use Young’s run to their advantage on the wide open spaces of Subiaco Oval and shut the home crowd up quickly and early, the Hawks will be heading to a semi-final match in Melbourne.
BEST BET:
Hawthorn by 1-24 ($3.75)

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs: Saturday 4/9 – 7.20pm at MCG
RECENT FORM:
Fair to say that the Magpies have been ordinary over the last two weeks due to the high standard they have set themselves throughout this year. They had an unconvincing three-point victory over Adelaide in Round 21 and narrowly lost to Hawthorn last weekend by three points as well. However the Pies had little to play for, knowing that the top spot on the ladder was there’s and couldn’t be stolen from them. Still, it will be a tough task for them to bounce back after those below par performances.
The Bulldogs regained a little bit of momentum last weekend with a 29-point win over Essendon at Etihad Stadium. They looked a little more confident in their own ability and seemed to rediscover their run and carry game style. However, it must be said, they were playing a dismal opposition who looked disinterested in the game.
KEY PLAYERS:
Heath Shaw has endured an inconsistent season to date, but it is no secret that he loves playing against the Western Bulldogs. In his last five matches against the Dogs, the rebounding defender has dominated, averaging 28 disposals a game. If Shaw matches up on the underdone Brad Johnson like he usually does and is able to find plenty of the footy off half-back, he could easily be the difference between the two teams.
In his short career, Ryan Griffen has already shown how damaging he can be during a finals match. His individual performance against St.Kilda in last year’s preliminary final was simply outstanding, restricting Brendon Goddard to 21 possessions while gathering 28 possessions himself along with seven inside 50’s and three goal assists. If Griffen can overcome a niggling knee injury, his explosive pace and goalkicking ability will be crucial to the Dogs’ chances of victory.
WHO WINS:
Many – including yours truly – tipped the Dogs to win this year’s premiership before this season started. However injuries to key players in the past month have seriously hindered their chances. Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney and key defender Dale Morris will both miss the rest of the season, while Shaun Higgins, Griffen and Johnson go into Saturday night’s match seemingly less than 100 per cent fit.
Collingwood regain star forward Alan Didak as well as Leigh Brown and Ben Johnson, but will be even more confident knowing they have already beaten the Bulldogs twice this year – by 36 points in Round one and 10 points in Round 11. The Magpies’ depth and balance across the field is unquestionable and despite a few errant performances in the last two weeks, they should be too classy for the injury riddled Dogs.
BEST BET:
Collingwood by 1-39 ($2.25)

Sydney v Carlton: Sunday 5/9 – 2.40pm at ANZ Stadium
RECENT FORM:
Sydney has been one of the form teams of the competition over the past month with four consecutive victories, including three of those against top eight sides. While the current team is made up of players who have plenty experience, it has been the Swans’ younger players that have really stood out over the past weeks, particularly Daniel Hannebery who recently won this year’s NAB AFL Rising Star award.
Despite a six-point loss to Fremantle last Friday night, Carlton still showed a few positive signs. The Blues applied great pressure when they didn’t have the ball, clearly winning the tackle count 90-64. Also skipper Chris Judd and fellow midfielder Marc Murphy gathered 30 possessions each. However their bottom six or seven players are the ones who need to lift in order to keep their premiership aspirations alive.
KEY PLAYERS:
In full flight, there aren’t many better players to watch in the competition than Adam Goodes. The dual Brownlow medallist spent a large percentage of game time in the forward line earlier in the season. But Goodes has been rotating frequently through the midfield over the past two months and has produced some breathtaking performances. The Blues can’t afford to give him any freedom and let him get into a rhythm.
Jarrad Waite is the ultimate enigma and the difference between his best and worst form is far too great at the moment. But the positive for the Blues is that when he’s at his best he is close to unstoppable. Waite is at his most dangerous when playing up in the forward line. He has kicked 13 goals in the last four weeks and must continue that form if the Blues want any chance of advancing to the semi-finals.
WHO WINS:
This game will be played at ANZ Stadium, not the SCG. If this game was at the SCG, the Swans would be the best bet of the round because they play that ground better than any other team in the competition. But because Sunday’s clash is at a different venue – a significantly larger playing surface than the SCG – the Blues have every right to feel confident.
But the Swans’ form is far too good to ignore. Not to mention that they also regain key players in Tadgh Kennelly, Hannebery and Shane Mumford this weekend. Carlton will be weary and will find it difficult to travel interstate two weeks in a row. The Swans’ backline will also be too quick for the Blues and should win quite comfortably on Sunday.
BEST BET:
Sydney by 25+ ($2.25)

Gareth Morgan takes a look at the Hyundai A-Leage – Round 5

Hyundai A-League Round 5

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory
Bluetongue Stadium
Friday 3rd September 2010

Central Coast Mariners’ build up to their Friday night clash with Melbourne Victory has been dominated by the furore surrounding the suspension handed out to Patricio Perez for simulation during last week’s draw with Sydney FC. As it stands, the Argentinean playmaker will miss the next two games and although the club have expressed their dismay at the decision, there does not appear to be any recourse for an appeal. Teenage goalkeeper Matthew Ryan could also miss the Victory clash after his howler gifted Sydney a goal last weekend, with short-term injury replacement Paul Henderson expected to be handed the gloves.
As for the visitors, they appeared to get their campaign up and running in Round 4 with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Gold Coast, although they will be wary of tackling a Mariners side against whom they lost twice last season. Midfielder Billy Celeski is pushing for a place on the bench after making a quicker than expected recovery from his knee injury, while there could be a place in the starting eleven for the promising Diogo Ferreira.
Victory looked far more like their old selves at Skilled Park last weekend and that will be worrying news for their title rivals. The Mariners, however, also showed their traditional resolve to secure a creditable at Sydney and will relish the opportunity to lock horns with another of the A-League’s heavyweights. Graham Arnold’s men are capable of picking up another valuable point here.
Prediction: Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Heart v North Queensland Fury
AAMI Park
Saturday 4th September 2010

Neutrals looking for entertainment this weekend may be well advised to tune in for Saturday’s clash between Melbourne Heart and North Queensland Fury. Both sides have won plenty of plaudits for their style of play so far this term and an enthralling tussle therefore looks to be on the cards at AAMI Park.
The home side were left fuming last week after Michael Baird’s simulation enabled Perth Glory to snatch a last-gasp equalizer, but will nevertheless have taken plenty of positives from a first-half in which they dominated the unbeaten West Australians. Defender Michael Beauchamp will again be unavailable due to an ankle injury and coach John van’t Schip may be tempted to drop Rutger Worm after another unconvincing display from the Dutch midfielder.
While Fury ultimately succumbed to their first defeat of the season at home to Adelaide last time out, they again impressed with a late comeback that saw them come agonisingly close to earning a share of the spoils. Franz Straka’s men will therefore head south in reasonably confident mood and will be bolstered by the return from suspension of defenders Eric Akoto and Chris Grossman. Goalkeeper Justin Pasfield is expected to shrug off a minor hamstring strain in time to feature and there is also positive news regarding long-term injury absentee Andre Kilian who has returned to training this week. Club skipper Ufuk Talay may get the nod to start after coming off the bench to good effect last week.
The pace of Alex Terra looks certain to give Fury’s backline plenty to think about and may prove just enough to swing this one in favour of the home side.
Prediction: Melbourne Heart 3-2 North Queensland Fury

Sydney FC v Adelaide United
Sydney Football Stadium
Saturday 4th September 2010

Now propping up the A-League ladder, defending champions Sydney FC desperately need a boost ahead of their home clash with Adelaide United and are hopeful that they have found one in the form of new signing Bruno Cazarine. The 27-year-old Brazilian has reportedly impressed during training this week and club officials are hoping to fast-track his international clearance paperwork through in time for the striker to make his debut against the Reds. With Alex Brosque still sidelined by an ankle ligament injury, the Sky Blues are hopeful that Cazarine can forge a successful partnership with Mark Bridge who made a successful return from injury last weekend. Should Cazarine be available, Kofi Danning is set to drop down to the bench, while at the other end of the field, coach Vitezslav Lavicka will be able to call upon Liam Reddy after the FFA overturned the red card he received last weekend.
Adelaide, meanwhile, have certainly found their shooting boots in recent weeks, rattling in six goals in the last two games and the South Australians will be quietly confident of deepening Sydney’s early season crisis.
Marcos Flores has been particularly impressive, bagging a contender for goal of the season against North Queensland and coach Rini Coolen will be hoping that key marksman Sergio van Dijk can follow suit this week and open his account for the season.
Taking on an in-form Adelaide side is not the ideal way for Sydney to try and kick-start their faltering campaign and them men from the Harbour City may have to wait another week before chalking up their first win.
Prediction: Sydney FC 1-1 Adelaide United

Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar
EnergyAustralia Stadium
Sunday 5th September 2010

So deep is the financial crisis at Newcastle Jets that Sunday’s scheduled meeting with Brisbane Roar at EnergyAustralia Stadium is in serious danger of not going ahead. The cash-strapped Jets are struggling to raise the funds required to stage the game and are pleading with FFA to step in and bail them out. The club’s players have also not been paid this week, but have agreed to take on Roar regardless, as long as the game goes ahead. At least coach Branko Culina has had the benefit of a bye week in which to prepare and he will be hoping that the crisis can foster a backs-to-the-wall mentality within the playing group. Chinese import Zhang Shuo could be handed his debut up front, but both Nikolai Topor-Stanley and Sean Rooney are both set to be unavailable for the home side.
Brisbane, meanwhile, are receiving rave reviews for the brand of neat passing football that they have developed under Ange Postecoglou and having not conceded a single goal yet this season, will fancy their chances of blunting a Jets attack that has found the net only once in three games.
Postecoglou could have new recruit Jean Carlo Solozarno available for the first time, with the Costa Rican striker’s international clearance expected to come through this week, but the 22-year-old is likely to have to settle for a place on the bench. There could be starting places for key duo Massimo Murdocca and Reinaldo, both of whom made substitute appearances in the 1-0 win over Wellington.
Troubled times indeed for the men from the Hunter, but they won’t receive any sympathy from a resurgent Roar. An away win looks a good bet here.
Prediction: Newcastle Jets 0-1 Brisbane Roar

Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
nib Stadium
Sunday 5th September 2010
Revenge will be on the menu for Perth Glory when they entertain Wellington Phoenix on Sunday, as it was of course the Kiwi side that eliminated the West Australians in last year’s finals. Certainly coach Dave Mitchell will be delighted that the game is taking place at nib Stadium, not only because Glory have not lost there since November 2009, but also because Phoenix are still struggling to replicate their formidable home form on the road.
The hosts are poised to welcome back experienced English defender Andy Todd who has now recovered from off-season knee surgery and Jamie Harnwell may also return to the squad if he manages to shrug off his calf problem. An ankle injury is likely to rule Mile Sterjovski out for another week, however and Michael Baird will also be unavailable after being hit with a two-match ban for simulation in last week’s dramatic draw with Melbourne Heart.
For the visitors, Troy Hearfield is expected to come in for Manny Muscat who is away on international duty with Malta, while Socceroo Jade North is another international absentee and goalkeeper Mark Paston is struggling to overcome a groin strain. Recent arrival Danny Vukovic is poised to make his debut between the posts should Paston not pull up fit in time to make the long trip west and fellow new recruit Nick Ward could also feature against one of his former clubs after joining Phoenix from Melbourne Victory.
Phoenix were perhaps a touch unfortunate not to pick up a point at Brisbane last week and will surely start to improve their miserable away form sooner rather than later. Whether they can do that at the expense of a Glory side who have turned nib Stadium into a fortress, however, seems doubtful and Dave Mitchell’s men will rightly be installed as warm favourites to chalk up another home win.
Prediction: Perth Glory 2-1 Wellington Phoenix

Holger Osieck - Takes The Reigns Of Australia For The First Time

Sportingbet Australia’s Round Ball Guru Gareth Morgan Gives His Thoughts On Friday Morning’s International Between Switzerland And The Socceroos.

International Friendly

Switzerland v Australia
Friday 3rd September 2010
AFG Arena , St.Gallen

Holger Osieck takes charge of the Socceroos for the first time on Friday night as they face Switzerland in St.Gallen and already the new coach has faced both criticism regarding his selections and late withdrawals from his squad.
Many pundits have been disappointed by the German’s apparent reluctance to seize the opportunity to blood a new crop of youngsters in preparation for next year’s Asian Cup and the qualification campaign for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
The likes of Harry Kewell, Josh Kennedy and Scott McDonald were all included in Osieck’s original party of 20 despite the fact that all three will be of veteran status by 2014, while young guns Nikita Rukavytsya and Tommy Oar were overlooked, along with in-form North Queensland frontman David Williams. Both Kewell and Kennedy have subsequently withdrawn from the squad due to injury, however, ensuring a late reprieve for Oar and a call-up for Jon McKain.
Another casualty is Melbourne heart defender Michael Beauchamp who has been ruled out by an ankle problem.
McDonald now looks almost certain to start in the wake of an encouraging start to the season with club side Middlesbrough and the former Celtic man will be desperate to bag that elusive first goal in green and gold in what will be his 17th international appearance.
Matthew Spiranovic could be handed an opportunity to stake his claim as Craig Moore’s long-term successor at the heart of the defence, while much will again be expected of the versatile Luke Wilkshire, arguably the most improved Socceroo of the last twelve months.
The Swiss, meanwhile, are preparing for a Euro 2012 qualifying group containing both England and Wales, but their plans have been disrupted by injuries to key defender Philippe Senderos and experienced midfielder Hakan Yakin, neither of whom will line up against the Socceroos on Friday.
Veteran boss Ottmar Hitzfeld has drafted in two new faces in the form of FC St Gallen goalkeeper Germano Vailati and English-born Young Boys defender Scott Sutter, but otherwise has largely kept faith with the squad that failed to progress beyond the group stage in South Africa.
Despite that first round exit, the Swiss did produce one of the shocks of the tournament in defeating eventual winners Spain and boast plenty of talent including former Tottenham man Reto Ziegler, the evergreen Alex Frei and Bayer Leverkusen duo Tranquillo Barnetta and Eren Derdiyok.
Switzerland’s recent success has been based on a solid defence, indeed they became record-breakers in terms of World Cup minutes played without conceding a goal while in South Africa, but their inability to find the net remains a problem and Hitzfeld will be hoping that FC Nuremberg striker Albert Bunjaku may prove capable of translating his impressive Bundesliga scoring record onto the international stage.
Neither Switzerland nor the Socceroos have exactly been free-scoring in recent times and when you throw in the fact that international friendlies are traditionally low-scoring, low-key affairs, it’s hard to see a thriller unfolding in St.Gallen.
The home side will start as warm favourites, but there might be some value to be had in backing a low-scoring draw.
Prediction: Switzerland 1-1 Australia

No Lockyer, No Hope For Broncos Say The Punters

No Lockyer, no finals is how Sportingbet Australia see the mission impossible facing Brisbane this weekend.

Sportingbet is offering punters who believe Brisbane can pull of an unlikely 15-point plus win over Canberra on Friday night odds of $7.50 to be part of finals action which would also require St George Illawarra to beat a desperate South Sydney on Sunday.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan believes the absence of champion Darren Lockyer makes to task of finishing eighth too hard for Brisbane.

“They would have been long odds anyway but the absence of Lockyer and extreme doubt over another playmaker Peter Wallace makes the job nigh on impossible,” said Sullivan.

“The Raiders are just in too hot form to get smashed in the manner the Broncos need win by.”

Sullivan said punters were of the opinion that the final eight would settled with the quinella of Manly and Canberra, well supported at $1.12, filling the last two spots.

“We posted a Final 8 quinella market and punters snapped up the short odds,” said Sullivan.

“It looks settled and punters are of the same opinion with not too many putting their faith in any miracles.”

NRL FINAL 8
Sportingbet Australia Market
Manly Sea Eagles 1.01
Canberra Raiders 1.10
South Sydney Rabbitohs 6.00
Brisbane Broncos 7.50

TO MISS NRL FINAL 8
Sportingbet Australia Market
Brisbane Broncos 1.04
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1.08
Canberra Raiders 5.50
Manly Sea Eagles 13.00

NRL FINAL 8 QUINELLA
Sportingbet Australia Market
Manly & Canberra 1.12
Manly & Brisbane 7.50
Manly & South Sydney 9.00
Canberra & South Sydney 15.00
South Sydney & Brisbane 101.00

Today we have a look at the eight AFL finalists and why they can and can’t win the 2010 Premiership.

Collingwood $2.90
Why They Can Win: The best performing side of the 2010 home and away season winning the McClelland Trophy (minor premiership). The Pies combine pace with some strong marking big forwards and a miserly defence. There’s plenty of grunt through the midfield with Swan and Luke Ball in particular willing to win a tough clearance and the likes of Pendlebury and Wellingham to back them up. Jolly is one of the best ruckmen in the league and Malthouse is a premiership winning coach.

Why They Can’t Win: They’ve kicked 57.74 over the past four weeks and the old saying says bad kicking is bad football. The Pies have a penchant for leading and delivering to the flanks which probably explains their inaccuracy to some degree – You’d hardly want Travis Cloke, Dayne Beames or even Dane Swan kicking for goal if your life was at stake. The Pies also have a high weight of expectation from their legion of followers and a high weight of expectation means plenty of pressure.

Geelong $2.50
Why The Can Win:Two premierships in the last three years and a list of playing staff that any side would be envious of. The Cats have an edge on experience in regard to fiinals played against any side they’ll encounter and appear to have lost little in desire. They are a close knit bunch and despite a star studded list play as a team rather than as individuals.

Why They Can’t Win: In all honesty you struggle to come up with reasons why the Cats can’t win. Perhaps the doubt surrpounding Ablett’s future could be a factor but really the Cats are one side that can’t be written off – that’s why they’re favourites.

St Kilda $5.75
Why They Can Win: A well disciplined side that are willing to play to their strengths. In Riewoldt they have a matchwinner who is able to lift in times of trouble and can be an inspirational leader. The Saints are willing to win ugly with players willing to sacrifice their own games for the good of the team.

Why They Can’t Win: They were my pick before Riewoldt returned from injury with their form 3-4 weeks before slipping under the radar. They do appear to have gone off the boil a little since and can be a little too focused on delivering the ball to the skipper.

Western Bulldogs $11
Why They Can Win: When they’re up and running the Doggies are capable of scoring quicker than any other side in the competition. In Eade they have a master tactician who is not afraid of trying the unexpected in finals and in Hall they have a player who can intimidate any defence.

Why They Can’t Win: Dear oh dear where do I start. A bad case of kennel cough followed by injuries to key players has them going into the finals completely out of form and without much confidence. The likes of Gilbee, Giansiracusa and finals wildcard Minson really need to step up.

Sydney $23
Why They Can Win: The Swans are in form going into the finals with wins in their last four matches. They have a premiership winning coach and a few players left who have also featured in a premiership. In Goodes they have a matchwinner.

Why They Can’t Win: They have a poor record at ANZ Stadium where their home final is being played. While their first fourteen players are strong, the Swans fall away a little after that and several of their fringe players will need to step up. Stretching their unbeaten record to eight is a big ask.

Fremantle $51
Why They Can Win: The Dockers have a young enthusiastic list whose forward pressure has been first class at times. They get the benefit of a home final and in Pavlich have a matchwinner of their own as well as a ruckman who is exceptionally difficult to combat.

Why They Can’t Win: They face the one side outside the final four (Hawthorn) that every finalist wants to avoid first up. While the Dockers form at home is strong, their record away is ordinary meaning they’ll be outsiders in their second finals game. Like Sydney their last few players can be suspect under pressure.

Hawthorn: $15.00
Why They Can Win: Hard and strong, it’s hard to believe the Hawks triumphed just a couple of years ago. Most of the players in this group played in that triumph over Geelong and despite a horrible start to this season they have clawed themselves back into contention. With Franklin and Roughead they have two big forwards who can win them matches, They need a big slice of luck but are the finals wildcard.

Why They Can’t Win: While Mitchell is a ball magnet when Rioli is not in the midfield they lack a yard of pace and can be found out against the quicker sides. The backline has some huge question marks – Stretton has performed sensationally in his first season but Gibson struggles against the big bodied key forwards and they will miss the back up of Gilham. Renouf and Skipper both try hard but may be found wanting against the likes of Sandilands, Ottens and Hudson.

Carlton $81
Why They Can Win: In Judd, Murphy and Gibbs there is plenty of class in the engine room (if Gibbs starts there). Combine that with the ball winning ability of Carazzo and Scotland and the Blues are more than capable of giving their forwards first use of the ball.

Why They Can’t Win: The Blues lack height in the backline and seem a key position player down up forward. In Warnock and Hampson they have a promising ruck duo but one which lacks the experience and strength of some of their opposition. While I can see the Blues causing an upset in Week 1 their chances of advancing look limited.

Forget Rafa and Roger - It's Djokavic v Murray For The US Open Final

Sportingbet Australia’s Tennis Expert Liam Twomey Takes A comprehensive Look At All The Action From Flushing Meadows

US Open
Surface: Hard
Draw Size: 128

Punters, we are here. The US Open begins early Tuesday morning and it is shaping up as one of the most open grand slams in recent memory. The old regime of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal dominance is under threat from multiple angles. Firstly, there are the established contenders in Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, two guys who have all the potential in the world but are still yet to stamp any dominance on the ATP tour. Secondly, there is the new breed of stars having their breakout years in 2010, lead by Tomas Berdych and Robin Soderling. Finally, the names all tennis punters know, Andy Roddick, David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko who are trying to claim a grand slam title in the latter stages of their careers.

This begs the question who will walk out of Flushing Meadows victorious and who will have missed another chance?

The First Quarter
The Top Seeds:
Rafael Nadal ($4.00): The Wimbledon Champion comes to New York for the eighth time looking to claim his maiden title. His form on the hard courts over the U.S summer was below par, never at any stage looking completely comfortable. He suffered losses to Murray and Marcos Baghdatis in his two lead up tournaments. However, you can never count Nadal out. While the form may not look great, the mental toughness and fight is second to none. He has been dealt a very nice draw and is a certainty to figure in the second week.

David Ferrer ($251): The warrior has drawn the future star, Alexandr Dolgopolov, in the first round and he will need to be on top of his game from the word go. His lead up form was just good without being overly impressive but Ferrer is one of the biggest fighters on the tour and will not leave anything on the court.

Who can cause the upsets:
David Nalbandian ($26.00): After a long injury lay off, Nalbandian started the hard court season with a bang, winning his comeback tournament in Washington and making the quarter finals at the Toronto Masters. He has also been given a soft draw through to a possible fourth round match up against Ferrer or Ernests Gulbis.

Ernests Gulbis ($67.00): Coming in with a seeding of 24, Gulbis has been given no favours from the draw facing talented French youngster Jeremy Chardy in the first round. If he can get through this it sets up a likely third round encounter with Ferrer. The Latvian is match hardened, playing four hard court events during the US Summer. He produced some solid tennis against Murray and Soderling, suffering narrow losses to both.

Likely quarter final matchup: Nadal Vs Gulbis/Nalbandian
A tough call for punters needs to be made in the bottom half of the first quarter. Nalbandian’s form is solid but he has not taken part in a grand slam for over a year and has not made the third round for over two years. On the other hand, Gulbis, is unproven in grade slam tennis but has the potential to run through this quarter.

The Second Quarter:
The top seeds
Andy Murray ($4.50): The Brit is ticking a lot of boxes heading into the final grand slam of the year. He was in top form winning the Toronto Masters and beating Nadal and Federer along the way. There is also no reason why Murray can’t make his way safely through to a quarter final with American Sam Querrey the only player capable of pushing Murray in his section of the draw.

Tomas Berdych ($23.00): The Wimbledon finalist and in form player on the tour had an interesting lead up to New York, losing matches to Federer and Marcos Baghdatis early in tournaments. However, he was still showing signs his big serve and flat ground strokes can do a lot of damage at Flushing Meadows. A fairly easy draw should ensure Berdych continues his good run of form in 2010.

Who can cause the upsets:
John Isner ($81.00): A lot of people know Isner from the marathon match he played against Nicholas Mahut at Wimbledon. But make no mistake about it, Isner is not just a gimmick that will fade into the background. Standing at 6’10 he has the ability to serve any opponent off the court, as he did here last year against Roddick. The only question mark surrounding him is a sprained ankle he suffered during the Cincinnati Masters. But at full fitness he will take some beating from any top player.

Likely quarter final matchup: Berdych Vs Murray

The Third Quarter:
The top seeds:
Novak Djokovic ($15.00): It’s becoming almost impossible to gauge where Djokovic is at with his tennis as his rollercoaster ride on the tour continues. He made the semi-finals in Toronto pushing Federer all the way to a tight third set and looking the winner for a good part of the match. However, then he went to Cincinnati and had a bad straight sets loss to Roddick. The signs are there that a form turnaround could be coming for Novak. He will be tested with a tough draw.

Nikolay Davydenko ($51.00): Since coming back from injury Davydenko has struggled to recapture the form which saw him win nine straight matches to begin the year. However, there were signs towards the end of his US Open preparation that this form may be returning. He is definitely a “wait and see” option for punters with a second round loss or a quarter final appearance both real possibilities.

Who can cause the upsets:
This is without a doubt the hardest quarter of the four with some of the most talented players on the tour, both seeded and un-seeded, residing here. This also means that punters will be treated to some fantastic match ups in the early rounds:
Davydenko Vs Richard Gasquet  (second round)
Gael Monfils Vs Roddick (third round)
Baghdatis Vs Mardy Fish (third round)

All these players have an excellent chance of causing a big upset, it will just depend on who is in the hottest form. So watch this section very closely and if it looks like one player is in fantastic touch, he is the man you want to be on.

Likely quarter final matchup: Roddick Vs Djokovic

The Fourth Quarter:
The top seeds:
Roger Federer ($3.25): The five time champion would be very confident about his chances of claiming US Open number six this fortnight. His form leading up to New York has been excellent, making it to at least the final of both lead up tournaments he entered. He has also been given a very soft draw which should see him safely into the fourth round without too many headaches.

Robin Soderling ($21.00): Sitting at a career high number five in the world rankings, the Swede looked a little tired in his lead up tournaments, only winning two matches both of which went to three sets. However, this may not have been such a bad thing. If Soderling was feeling the pinch of a hectic schedule, his unexpected losses provided him with the opportunity to rest up.

Who can cause the upsets:
Marin Cilic ($67.00): The U.S Open preparation has been a disaster for Cilic, losing in the first round of the last two tournaments he entered. Interestingly, he had a similar lead up to last year’s tournament and managed to make the quarter finals, beating Murray in straight sets along the way. The form suggests upsets are unlikely but keep an eye out to see what the performances are like.

Likely quarter final matchup: Federer Vs Soderling

How the semi finals will look:
Nadal Vs Murray
Soderling Vs Djokovic

Where is Federer?
There is a lot of debate over whether Federer is or isn’t on the decline. I have decided to leave him out of the semi finals even though his pre-tournament form is good. The question I have about Federer is his ability to beat big serving, big hitting players who can hit through him. The last three opponents who have beaten Roger in grand slams, Soderling, Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro have all successfully exploited this slight weakness. His likely quarter final opponent, Soderling, who beat him in four sets at the French Open, can cause the biggest upset of the tournament.
The final:
Murray defeats Djokovic

It’s time for both these guys to step up and make an impact on the ATP tour and it starts here. Djokovic will have to earn his spot, needing to come through the hardest section of the draw. However, having made two semi finals and one final from his last three US Open appearances, he should be able to navigate his way through.

Murray has the easier initial draw but possible match ups against Berdych and Nadal will no doubt test him. However, he will be able to prevail because, even though he is ranked number four in the world, he is the number one on hard courts and he is about to prove it.

GOLDEN ROSE TIP – TOORAK TOFF – Race 6 TAB No. 5
[Rosehill]
Looked the goods in winning the Vain Stakes and think this trip suits
him. Will be suited by the pace and should be storming home.

BEST BET – CLOTHING- Race 2 TAB No.8 [Rosehill]
Beat some good mares first-up last prep and always races great fresh.
She looks ideally placed in this.

BEST VALUE – GENERAL TRUCE- Race 4 TAB No.1 [Caulfield]
Copped a knock at the 200 last start but still gave a great sight behind
Toorak Toff. Think he’s under rated and he has won at Group III level.

THE LAY – MORE JOYOUS – Race 7 TAB No.1 [Rosehill]
Beaten first-up in this race last year and this time has 59kg and barrier
12 to contend with. Enough against to take on at the short quote.

BEST-BACKED – REWARD FOR EFFORT – Race 4 TAB No.2
[Rosehill]
Punters are keen on the Moody visitor who’s been backed in from $4
into $3.50 on the back of some good bets.