Rafa and Williams almost unstoppable in Paris

They’ve taken out 11 tournaments between them for the year, both have 36-2 win-loss records and their combined grand slam tally stands at 26. It should be of little surprise then that Rafael Nadal ($1.65) and Serena Williams ($2.50) will be two of the shorter priced favourites in recent grand slam history when the French Open starts on Sunday.
After a knee injury scuppered much of his 2012 Nadal has been a colossus this season, his only defeats coming in the final of his comeback tournament and a loss in the Monte Carlo decider.
Perhaps above all else though is his Roland Garros record. At 52-1 he’s quite simply the greatest clay court player the world has known. It will take a knee explosion or freak performance for the King of Clay to surrender his crown.

Novak Djokovic ($2.75) is capable – having beaten the Spaniard this year. While Andy Murray is out of action, Nadal’s elevation to third seed may prove to be a disservice to the Spaniard. He’s been lugged in the same half of the draw as Djokovic and as such they are slated to meet in a semi-final. The door becomes slightly ajar for ageing maestro Roger Federer ($13) if he can lift his game a notch. His potential semi-final opponent is David Ferrer ($19) who is 0-14 against the Swiss.

A smokie going all the way is unlikely here, particularly the way the draw has panned out but there are some things to note. Federer clone Grigor Dimitrov ($41) has beaten Djokovic on clay in 2013 and is a possible third round opponent for the Serb. Languid Latvian Ernests Gulbis ($51) has got game and shot up the rankings from 151 to 39 in the last seven months. Still, fifth seeded Czech Tomas Berdych looms for him in round two.

Yank Tank John Isner ($201) may have had a mixed year but he did win on the green clay in the US. You’d think he’d be tailor-made for a fast court but his ability to loop back lots of balls has seen has seen him do well on slow surfaces.

The only reason Williams is slightly longer is her sketchy record in Paris – she’s won just once here, way back in 2002. Otherwise her form is without peer. She destroyed Victoria Azarenka ($6) in the Rome final and did a similar job on Maria Sharapova ($6.50) in Madrid – and these are likely her two biggest threats at Roland Garros.
It’s hard to get excited about Samantha Stosur’s ($17) season to date though her win over Petra Kvitova ($17) in Rome and subsequent three set loss to Azarenka suggest her touch is on the improve. But if Stosur’s seeded ninth it’s projected she’ll have to face players rated higher than her from the fourth round onwards. And given her penchant for mental meltdowns it’s hard to see her not unravelling if that plays out.

Doomben 10,000

Epaulette – Was a bit flat second up after a super first up run behind Black Caviar. A different form line to most of the others. I expect he’ll be cherry ripe for this and is good value at the $5.50.

Best Bet

Randwick Race 4 Number 2 Vatuvei

Going well and the step up to 2400 will suit. A real swimmer so the wetter the better. Also great value.

Value

Caulfield Race 4 Number 6 Ava’s Delight

Will be fitter for two runs back and ready to win here. Three starts ago ran a close second to Super Cool and a repeat of that performance would put her right in the mix here at attractive odds.

Lay

Caulfield Race 9 Number 5 Strawberry Boy

No knock on the horse but this is a much more competitive race than last start. He’s going well but I’m happy to lay him at the current quote of $2.30.

Best backed

Doomben Race 8 Number 10 Epaulette

Was solid support pre-post at the $7.50. We went up $7 after the final field and have been hit with a number of decent wagers. Now $5.50.

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Round eight saw several upsets – the Lions defeated the Bombers at home, Collingwood ended Geelong’s unbeaten run to record a memorable victory, and the Eagles stole victory from the jaws of defeat after the siren against the Kangaroos. Plenty of action this week for Round nine, find out all the odds below…

Collingwood ($1.60) V Sydney ($2.35) – Friday 24/5, MCG – 7:50pm

The Magpies had one of their most memorable wins in recent times last weekend, becoming the first team to defeat Geelong this season. Round eight was somewhat melancholy for the Swans, drawing with Fremantle at the SCG.

After the last two weeks, Sydney seem to have hit a brick wall – a loss to the Hawks and a draw with the Dockers says that this week becomes a crucial game for the Swans’ season.

The big question mark for Collingwood will be how they back up last week’s performance – will they come out flat after a physically and emotionally taxing contest last week? Only time will tell. At $2.35 and with their backs to the wall, the Swans could be worth a punt based on the Magpies’ gruelling contest.

The Magpies’ spread of goal kickers looks to have troubled the Cats last week, and their efficiency inside 50 of late has hurt opposition sides. Krakour coming back into the side has given the Magpies an extra bit of ‘x-factor’ up forward and through the midfield, while O’Brien loves to run, particularly on the wide open spaces of the MCG.

As much as the Swans need to win this week, the Magpies look to have all the answers.

Best Bet – Collingwood (1-39) $2.05

Port Adelaide ($5.75) V Geelong ($1.14) – Saturday 25/5, AAMI Stadium – 1:15pm

The Power’s early season form of five wins in a row seems a lifetime ago – three losses in a row now, last week to Carlton by 18 points, sees Port Adelaide as considerable outsiders this week. The Cats also suffered defeat last week, their first of the season, but were far from disgraced; a six-point loss to Collingwood at the MCG.

The issue for Port Adelaide in their last three losses has been uncompetitive starts ultimately costing. Of all opponents, Geelong are not the side to be sluggish against in the early stages of a match; or at any stage. As many sides have fallen victim to this year, and very nearly Collingwood last week, switching off for any period of time against the Cats will hurt.

Where Geelong seem to have the advantage in this match is up forward – Tom Hawkins booting four goals last week, and a host of smalls causing havoc for opposition defenders spells trouble for the Power. The Blues’ smalls ran amok last weekend, while their talls were more than serviceable.

The Cats’ quality big men in Hawkins and Podsiadly along with Christiansen and Motlop should serve up more of the same this weekend.

Geelong with too much quality.

Best Bet – Geelong (25+) $1.71

Greater Western Sydney ($17.00) V West Coast ($1.01) – Saturday 25/5, Skoda Stadium – 2:10pm

Another disappointing result for the Giants last round – an 83-point loss to ladder-leaders Hawthorn has GWS anchored to the bottom of the ladder, and justifiably $17.00 for a win this round. The Eagles enjoyed a thrilling win after the siren against the Kangaroos, courtesy of Nic Naitanui.

After a slow start to the season, the Eagles look to be back on track. Against cellar-dweller opponent GWS, things look like they are going to continue to improve for West Coast, all while continuing to worsen for the hapless Giants.

The key players for the Eagles are all firing well coming into round nine of the season – Kennedy kicked two crucial goals last week against a quality defence, Glass continues to remain solid down back, Naitanui’s work rate and x-factor continues to provide a difference as the team are gelling nicely.

Expect to see more of the same this week, all while another ‘Cricket score’ is kicked against the Giants.

Best Bet – West Coast (40+) $1.22

St.Kilda ($1.22) V Western Bulldogs ($4.30) – Saturday 25/5, Etihad Stadium – 4:40pm

The Saints suffered a disappointing loss to the Crows last round, while the Bulldogs look to have hit a season-low; just one win from their last 19 games, including a loss to the Gold Coast Suns last week.

The key for the Bulldogs this week will be to win back some respect of the wider football community – their loss to the Suns not only puts them in the same boat as Melbourne this season, but has drawn broad criticism. The promising signs shown in their round one victory over the Brisbane Lions seems a distant memory, and the Bulldogs have not been able to play anywhere near that capacity since.

The Saints on the other hand have produced effective footy in patches so far this season, and while their inconsistency has cost them matches, their better footy has occasionally paid off for two wins. Nick Riewoldt continues to fire for the Saints, and could be set for another big game this weekend.

Hard not to back a champion player in to put the opposition to the sword, and it’s even harder to back the struggling Bulldogs to win most weeks.

Back the Saints by a fair way here.

Best Bet – St.Kilda (25+) $1.75

Brisbane Lions ($2.65) V Carlton ($1.47) – Saturday 25/5, GABBA – 7:40pm

The Brisbane Lions were electric last week, causing one of the upsets of the season against the highly-fancied Bombers. Carlton defeated Port Adelaide by 18 points, making it four wins from their past five games.

The big story to come out of the Lions’ victory against Essendon is the suspension of Daniel Merrett for his sling tackle on the Bombers’ Michael Hurley. This is a huge loss for the Lions given Carlton’s forward line is their Achilles heel; Brisbane will certainly miss Merrett’s presence and defensive nous on Saturday night as the Blues continue to experiment with, and work out their forward structure. With Waite back in the side, the absence of one of the Lions’ key players could be telling in the final result.

Where the Lions may have the advantage however is the ruck, and potentially, the midfield. Ruckman Matthew Leuenberger is in brilliant form lately, and if he can provide the Brisbane midfield with first use of the ball, the Carlton defence could be under pressure. While Jonathan Brown has looked a shadow of his former self in recent times, the match-up with Michael Jamison looks another inevitability, and, as we know, never write off a champion of Brown’s ilk.

While the GABBA seems an advantage for the Lions, the Blues’ recent form cannot be argued with; and this is far too an important game for Carlton to drop, as it could set them up for a 6-4 record after 10 rounds, considering they have a game against the GWS to come.

Carlton should not lose this one, however the Lions may push them all the way.

Best Bet – Carlton (1-39) $2.15

Richmond ($2.03) V Essendon ($1.78) – Saturday 25/5, MCG – 7:45pm

The Tigers defeated the Demons last round with a 34-point win at the MCG to see them go 5-3 after eight rounds, while the Bombers suffered their second straight loss after an undefeated start to the season, going down by 10 points to the Lions at Etihad Stadium.

In one of the matches of the round, ‘Dreamtime at the ‘G’ always delivers us a compelling contest, however, this time around, we have two sides that have dramatically improved.

Jack Riewoldt booted three goals last week, as did young gun Dustin Martin, which paves the way for some intriguing match-ups. One facet evident of the Tigers this season however has been their over-reliance on Riewoldt, and a side like Essendon will often make teams pay for such a consciousness of one player.

The Bombers, while their forward line generally didn’t fire last week, still looked functional with Crameri taking several marks across the half forward line.

On the wide open spaces of the MCG, the midfield battle bodes as an interesting one, however, while Essendon did not win last week, Watson was still more than handy in the middle of the ground. Having the Brownlow Medallist earning first use of the footy will always be dangerous for opposition sides.

Essendon need to bounce back this week, and there is no better stage to do it on than this.

Best Bet – Essendon (1-39) $2.35

Hawthorn ($1.01) V Gold Coast ($17.00) – Sunday 26/5, MCG – 1:10pm

Hawthorn rocketed into first position on the ladder last week with an 83-point win over GWS, while the Suns made history defeating the Bulldogs, their first time winning two games in a row.

While the Suns have seemingly hit a patch of form, the Hawks are in a totally different league. Granted, the Gold Coast have been impressive against sides such as Melbourne and The Western Bulldogs, but their opponent this week are a significant step-up.

There is great reason behind the Suns being at $17.00 for a win in this match and the Hawks at $1.01 – Hawthorn have not lost a game since round one, and have comprehensively beaten fellow top four competitors along the way, while the Suns are a young side who will more than likely learn a thing or two off the Hawks on Sunday afternoon.

Franklin could be set for another influential match, and Luke Hodge continues to dominate through the midfield. It could get ugly for the Suns.

Best Bet – Hawthorn (40+) $1.24

North Melbourne ($1.46) V Adelaide ($2.70) – Sunday 26/5, Etihad Stadium – 3:20pm

For another week, and an all too familiar feeling this season, the Kangaroos were closely beaten, this time with a kick after the siren against West Coast. The Crows comfortably defeated St.Kilda at AAMI Stadium, setting them up nicely for this week’s clash.

The Kangaroos have without a doubt improved as a side since Brent Harvey made his return two weeks ago, and last week, the veteran was again among their best with two goals to his name. The Crows must find a match-up for Harvey, as the Kangaroos could hold a distinct advantage through the midfield with Harvey’s run and carry style game.

Inconsistency has been an issue for the Crows this season, while for North Melbourne, a close-call has often meant they’re not far away from a win, and, many would argue that after leading for the majority of the match against an in-form West Coast last week, they should have taken the points.

Backing North Melbourne to come out hungry and firing after last week’s loss.

Best Bet – North Melbourne (1-39) $2.20

Fremantle ($1.01) V Melbourne ($17.00) – Sunday 26/5, Patersons Stadium – 2:40pm

The Dockers played out a thrilling draw against the Swans at the SCG last week, while the Demons, while recording another loss, looked to show more passion this time around as they went down by 34 points.

The resolve of the Fremantle group cannot be questioned after last week – trailing by as much as 27 points to draw level in the dying stages, their smalls in Fyfe and Ballantyne seem to be giving opposition sides nightmares at the moment.

Nothing seems to be going right for the Demons all season, and the travel factor over to the fortress that is Patersons Stadium mounts a stronger case as to why the already-struggling Melbourne are unlikely to turn their fortunes around this week.

Without Pavlich in the side, the Dockers seem to have found other ways. Fremantle are a dangerous side with the likes of Suban, Fyfe, Ballantyne, Duffield and Barlow all in good form.

Tipping Fremantle by a comfortable margin here.

Best Bet – Fremantle (40+) $1.28

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Sportingbet TV’s Darryl ‘The Big Marn’ Brohman and Duncan McRae preview Round 11 of the 2013 NRL season.

The Big Marn picks his NSW and Queensland sides for State Of Origin Game 1

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Money Back Matches

Rd 11 – Wests v North Queensland – North Queensland

Rd 11 – Manly v Canberra – Canberra

Rd 10 – North Queensland v Sydney – North Queensland

Round 11 Markets

The Cats remain the only undefeated side after Round 7, Hawthorn continued to remind us why they’re the premiership favourites, and the Saints put Carlton to the sword in Monday night footy. Plenty of action this week for Round 8, find out all the odds below…

West Coast ($1.36) V North Melbourne ($3.15) – Friday 17/5, Patersons Stadium – 6:40pm

Last week, the Eagles travelled to the GABBA where they were under siege for much of the game – their 26-point winning margin, while a solid win, did not do the game justice. For North Melbourne, a strong second half saw them sink the Bulldogs convincingly.

The big inclusion for North Melbourne last week was Brent Harvey – an effective return at Etihad Stadium sets the speedy veteran for a big clash at the wide open spaces of Patersons Stadium. Majak Daw also impressed last week for North Melbourne, kicking six goals – Daw may be the x-factor needed to counter that of livewire Naitanui which makes the Kangaroos good value at $3.15.

It is a tough ask for any side to travel to Patersons Stadium and come away with the four points – and considering Eagles captain Darren Glass was effective yet again last week in the backline, we could expect one of North’s forwards to have a quiet game.

A distinct advantage in the ruck and midfield, along with Kennedy kicking four and LeCras three last week should see West Coast take the points here.

Best Bet – West Coast (1-39) $2.15

Essendon ($1.04) V Brisbane Lions ($11.00) – Saturday 18/5, Etihad Stadium – 1:15pm  

The Bombers were gallant in their Friday night blockbuster loss to the Cats, although an inaccurate third quarter against quality opposition made them pay. The Lions were too gallant against the Eagles, with the end margin (26 points) somewhat overshadowing their strong showing.

The odds tell a story of form leading into this match – Essendon have only lost one game for the season, while the Lions are struggling.

Veteran Jonathan Brown is nowhere near his best, and generally, whenever the Lions have defeated the Bombers in recent times, Brown has fired.

This is especially crucial considering the myriad of options the Bombers have had up forward this season – tall and small. Gumbleton booted two goals last week while taking some impressive contested marks, while the presence of Goddard continues to deliver for the Bombers.

Essendon much too strong at Etihad Stadium, and should win comfortably.

Best Bet – Essendon (25+) $1.22

Hawthorn ($1.01) V Greater Western Sydney ($21.00) – Saturday 18/5, Aurora Stadium – 2:10pm  

Hawthorn were again impressive last week, defeating the Swans comfortably in the Grand Final re-match at the MCG. The Giants however suffered a 135-point drubbing to Adelaide, and are justifiably $21.00 for the win this week.

There is not a great deal to ponder over this week’s clash – the Hawks have not lost a game since round 1 (against the undefeated Cats), while the Giants are yet to chalk up their first win of the season.

The shining light for the Hawks last week was Luke Hodge, who, before the season started, had us all thinking he would be on limited game-time this year. Fast forward seven rounds, and Hodge looks in career-best form.

Franklin returned to the scoreboard last weekend after two goalless weeks, booting three, while Roughead led the Hawks’ goal-kicking with four majors.

All the money for the Hawks this week, and with good reason.

Best Bet – Hawthorn (40+)  $1.02

Gold Coast ($1.62) V Western Bulldogs ($2.28) – Saturday 18/5, Metricon Stadium – 4:40pm  

The Suns recorded their first ever win in Melbourne last Sunday, in the fashion of a 10-goal hiding to a hapless Melbourne, while the Bulldogs were well-beaten by North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium.

The big story however surrounding this game is the very real possibility of the Gold Coast Suns recording two wins in a row for the first time in their history. On the other hand, the Bulldogs do not want to sink to the lowly depths of the Demons by suffering such a loss this week.

Ablett did what he does best last weekend and wreaked havoc on the opposition midfield, Zac Smith was powerful up forward, and Campbell Brown provided a strong presence.

Though the Bulldogs had plenty of contributors last week, and plenty of experience that Melbourne lacked last week – Giansiracusa booted four goals, while Robert Murphy kicked two, Griffin and Minson also played well.

Cannot see the Bulldogs dropping this game, the inexperienced Bulldogs will be too experienced for the Suns.

Best Bet – Western Bulldogs (1-24) $3.75

Collingwood ($3.05) V Geelong ($1.37) – Saturday 18/5, MCG – 7:40pm  

The Magpies suffered a 27-point loss to the Dockers last week in Perth, their second loss from their last three matches, while the Cats continued their unbeaten run, defeating Essendon in front of a sold-out Etihad Stadium.

This game shapes as the match of the round given the battles these two sides have fought in recent years, however Collingwood look to have more on the line.

Clinging to their spot in the top eight, the Magpies could have found themselves outside the eight had Carlton beaten the Saints last Monday night. A loss for Collingwood here would further see their finals aspirations in jeopardy, however, they will be bolstered by the confirmed return of Luke Ball this week. Ball, who has not played since round 3, 2012, will add to the Magpies’ midfield against the likes of Selwood who they must stop.

Geelong continue to give punters reason to back them however – their undefeated record speaks for itself this season, along with the host of stars and young talent in their side. Additionally, the Cats are a side that will always make sides pay for lapses and missed opportunity throughout a game – the last two weeks in particular.

Four solid quarters of footy from Geelong will once again see them undefeated.

Best Bet – Geelong (1-39) $2.15

Sydney ($1.38) V Fremantle ($3.00) – Saturday 18/5, SCG – 7:40pm  

An underwhelming result for the Swans last week saw them go down in the Grand Final re-match against the Hawks by 37 points, while the Dockers burst out of the blocks early against the Magpies before rallying late to run out 27-point winners.

If there is one common theme in footy, it is that quality sides do not lose two games in a row. The Swans were comprehensively outplayed last week and generally, the football public will expect to see the Swans come out this week and make amends.

However, one aspect of Hawthorn’s game which really hurt the Swans last week was the spread of goal-kickers – the Hawks had nine, and the Dockers had 11 last week. If Fremantle can bring the same spread of goal-kickers this week, then the Swans are in trouble and could be worth a punt at $3.00.

Although, the SCG, a smaller ground, may slow down such midfield run of the Dockers, and as we know, the Swans are a tough ask at home.

Sydney to bounce back this week.

Best Bet – Sydney (1-39)  $2.12

Carlton ($1.36) V Port Adelaide ($3.15) – Sunday 19/5, Etihad Stadium – 1:10pm  

The Blues’ run of three straight wins came to a screeching halt on Monday night going down by nine points, giving the Saints a scare late after a slow first three quarters. Port Adelaide were comprehensively beaten by the Tigers, suffering their second loss in a row.

The big question mark surrounds the fitness of key personnel on Carlton’s list – Carrazzo missed the Saints game, Gibbs was out through a hamstring injury, Yarran and Ellard both suffered injuries against St.Kilda, as did backman Michael Jamison. Carrazzo and Gibbs are likely to return, however the others are not so likely. Furthermore, Betts will be on the sidelines serving a three-game suspension – a huge blow for the Blues.

The outs for the Blues do not rule out the Power for a win on Sunday – considering the personnel that Carlton could be missing, Port at $3.15 are good value bet to take the points.

On the other hand, this match is shaping as almost season-defining for the Blues. Their loss to St.Kilda, arguably through complacency and underrating the opposition off the back of three wins, sees them at 3-4.

Another loss this week could see Carlton slump to 3-5, and could be curtains on the season. Waite looking likely to return from suspension gives Carlton a much needed tall-target up forward, and could prove the difference.

Carlton to win a closely fought contest.

Best Bet – Carlton (1-24) $3.25

Richmond ($1.02) V Melbourne ($14.00) – Sunday 19/5, MCG – 3:20pm

The Tigers put a convincing end to three straight losses last week with a big win over Port Adelaide, at AAMI Stadium no less. Where do we being for the Demons? A 10-goal loss to the competition’s second youngest side, the Gold Coast Suns, has the Demons as low as they have been for the year, and good reason to be at $14.00.

Like other games this week, this one looks like a dead-rubber. It is not a matter of whether the Tigers will win, it is by how much.

That said, Demons backman James Frawley usually matches up very well with Jack Riewoldt – an interesting match-up to watch, however, not the be-all and end-all of the overall result.

The midfield power of the Tigers through Deledio and Martin was prominent last week, and speaking of midfield power, almost half the Tigers’ goals last week came from their midfielders. This is especially important if Frawley has a good game on Riewoldt.

Expecting a walk-over in this one, Tigers very easily.

Best Bet – Richmond (40+) $1.18

Adelaide ($1.33) V St.Kilda ($3.25) – Sunday 19/5, AAMI Stadium – 4:10pm

A 135-point win for the Crows over the Giants last round should see them in top condition for the clash this week. The Saints defeated Carlton by nine points after being discounted by many last week, however only time will tell whether the late scare the Blues gave will take a toll.

Both these sides had firing forwards last round – St.Kilda’s Nick Riewoldt, aside from kicking three vital goals, works as hard as anyone in the competition. Relentless chasing and pressing up the ground tells us that Riewoldt is one of the hardest players in the league to match up on. The $3.25 could be worth a punt if Riewoldt is up and about again this week.

Tom Lynch booted 10 goals against the Giants last week, although, the challenge is now to back up such a performance this week against superior opposition to Greater Western Sydney.

Let’s not forget Dangerfield and Jenkins however, who booted four each, particularly Dangerfield who is one of the most versatile players in the competition, and, like Riewoldt, particularly hard to match up on.

Never underestimate the home factor here, the Crows look to have improved in the last few weeks, and while the Saints made a statement last Monday night, Adelaide have the edge here.

Best Bet – Adelaide (1-39) $2.20

Sportingbet TV’s Richie Callander and Duncan McRae preview the G1 Doomben Cup, G3 BRC Sprint at Doomben & Inglis 3YO Guineas at Scone.

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Sportingbet TV’s Mark McVeigh and Duncan McRae preview Round 8 of the 2013 AFL season.

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Sportingbet TV’s Darryl ‘The Big Marn’ Brohman and Duncan McRae preview Round 10 of the 2013 NRL season.

6 Points Special: MONEY BACK up to $100 if you back a team head to head in NRL Round 10 & they lose by 6 points or less

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