AFL Round 5 Preview
April 17, 2008 by jmac33Geez this betting game can be painful. I picked every result except one last weekend (five favourites, plus Brisbane to win and Richmond at the +) and got no returns because I had Collingwood in all my bets. I know I probably deserve it because Carlton were always a chance against their arch rivals but I was certain the Pies would be too good. Live and learn I suppose. But if you followed seven of my tips and were clever enough to leave out Collingwood then feel free to send me a commission. Also, if you’re going to back a winner my organisation would prefer if you did it with a competitor.
St Kilda vs Essendon at the Telstra Dome
Essendon were one of the most impressive teams last weekend. Avid readers will know I have been slow to jump on the Bombers this year but I’m getting there. Against adversity they were really competitive last week and could have got the chocolates if it wasn’t for injury. The loss of McVeigh this week will be very costly and will not be made up by the return of Lloyd. McVeigh has been so good this season that I will resist backing Essendon at the +.
St Kilda were found out last weekend, just as most people suspected. 16 of their regulars are high quality players but the remaining eight would not be getting a game for Geelong or Hawthorn (especially Fraser Gehrig). You would expect them to win this week but it is by no means a certainty.
Tip: St Kilda by three goals.
Most disposals: Leigh Montagna. Had 35 touches against the Cats and was one of few Saints with the heart and engine to run the game out.
Most goals: Nick Reiwoldt. Pure Blonde loves playing the Bombers and is due for a five or six goal night.
Geelong vs Sydney at Skilled Stadium
I wish Bazza wasn’t suspended because I have had this game on my AFL calendar for a few weeks, mainly because I backed the Western Bulldogs to be the last team standing at value odds. This game will be played in the usual Sydney tempo so I expect a lot of ball ups and contested possessions.
Tip: Geelong by three goals.
Most disposals: Joel Corey is averaging nearly 31 touches a game and clearly benefits from playing alongside Ablett and Bartel. I also like Brett Kirk for some value because he had 33 disposals last time they played.
Most goals: In a low scoring game I’ll go with the man who is lucky to be playing, Cameron Mooney. Moones had the most goals (4) last time these two met.
Adelaide vs Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Didn’t I tell you Freo were pathetic? I didn’t think they were that bad but I did tell you to get on Richmond at the + last week. I’ll obviously be tipping Adelaide this week but I am expecting more hard running from the Dockers. Freo did beat the Crows in both their encounters last year so beware to lock a W in for Adelaide.
Tip: Adelaide by 21 points.
Most disposals: Scott Thompson. His last three weeks have seen him produce the footy we expect.
Most goals: I’ll go with the Birdman who had four goals the last time these clubs played. I don’t think Ben Rutten has beaten an opponent this year so he is due to play well and Pav is a good matchup for him physically.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn at the Gabba
We are the pride of Brisbane town, we wear maroon, blue and gold…. Sorry, I’m still celebrating last week. Hopefully the Brisbane players aren’t doing the same though because they face the second best team in the AFL this week. Hawthorn did what they did against a competitive Crows outfit and this week they welcome back bad boy/elite midfielder, Jordan Lewis. I expect a good game of footy which will be dominated by the power forwards as Buddy, Browny, Bradshaw and Roughy will all be too good for their opponents.
Tip: I’ll be on Brisbane at the + but Hawthorn should win by a goal or two because they are flying.
Most disposals: Luke Power. I went with Lukey against the Power and he didn’t salute but he got 34 and 31 touches against Hawthorn last year. Any of the eight players could win this market though.
Most goals: Take your pick. I’ll go with Thunder Dan because Bradshaw’s performance has been unbelievable this year at half fitness. Buddy will torch Daniel Merrett though.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne at the MCG
This will be a great contest and could go either way. Collingwood showed that they aren’t invincible last week and I feel like North is ready to start notching up their surprise wins. I also think they match up well against Collingwood. Having said that, I’ll be a coward like usual and stick with the black and white.
Tip: Collingwood by two goals.
Most disposals: Dane Swan because I think Heath Shaw will receive attention from Brady Rawlings.
Most goals: Alan Didak. I have no factual evidence to support this claim but I don’t like Rocca and Didak is as likely as Thompson or Corey Jones to kick three or four.
Melbourne vs Carlton at the MCG
Carlton don’t deserve be such short priced favourites here but I can’t see them losing. Although, Melbourne did beat them in both contests last year but the Blues only tried in round 14 as the second matchup between the clubs was round 22 when Carlton threw the game. You can call Libba a dishonest, selfish man but he was on the ball here. Brett Ratten could NEVER convince me that they tried to win that game simply because he allowed Travis Johnstone, one of the best kicks in the competition, to get 42 touches as a loose man in defence for the whole game. And what’s more, Brett Ratten made the right decision; if I was a Carlton fan I would have been kicking the couch if they won the game.
Tip: Carlton by five goals.
Most disposals: Chris Judd. The great man is slowly getting into form and is a class above all of those in the market. Brock McLean will be around the 27 touch mark though.
Most goals: Brendan Fevola. Easy money here, even if he only pays $2.75.
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond at the Telstra Dome
Terry Wallace might be employed in 2008 and 2009 if he keeps surprising the AFL world with wins like last week. He would dearly like to continue that trend against his former club and with two ex-dogs by his side (Brown and McMahon); his Tigers should have plenty of motivation. I still like the Territory Bulldogs here though as they are just a better all round team.
Tip: Another Tigers win wouldn’t shock me here but I think the Dogs should get up by three goals.
Most disposals: Kane Johnson. Easily playing his best footy as a Tiger, averaging almost 30 disposals a game. Cross and Cooney will be favourite but I expect 30 or more touches from the Richmond skipper.
Most goals: Scott Welsh kicked three goals last week and had 17 touches as well as 11 marks; he is obviously finding his feet at his new club. Brad Johnson isn’t 100% and who knows who will be the Tigers full forward this week; Mitch Morton, Matthew Richardson, Brett Deledio?
West Coast vs Port Adelaide at Subiaco
I was hoping Port Adelaide would be outsiders in this market but the bookies were too smart, as they often are. West Coast will be stronger this week, especially with a few key players returning from injury but there is no way Port is going 0 and 5.
Tip: Port Adelaide by somewhere between 15 and 50.
Most disposals: Peter Burgoyne. The Cornes boys and Matthew Rosa are the dangers here but I think Peter Burgoyne will dominate Subiaco, especially since West Coast doesn’t believe in applying forward pressure. Ask Martin Mattner and Tadgh Kennelly how much pressure they felt on the Swans half-backline last week.
Most goals: Daniel Motlop. Has showed glimpses this year and is due for four or five in a game.
Highest scoring team for round 5 – Adelaide is good value at $11.00.
I always like to have a look at your AFL post every week. You seem to know what you are talking about, although I don’t always follow your lead. Last round was not good for me either, I was also confident on a Collingwood win under 39.5pts. I did go against your judgment and backed Port Adelaide and couldn’t believe that they lost they way they did. You picked Richmond well last week.
I’ve also been enjoying the posts. Wasn’t sure on the Liverpool/Arsenal being a low scoring game comment. Probably would have been in Liverpool’s favour to sit back and play that way, but it was open and attacking, like Rafa Benitez said they would be. Either way, I watched it and was an awesome game. I also took the Blues on the line. So many of their players still don’t have proven skills and the pies really needed to pressure the ball carrier. Had they done that I reckon they could have not only won, but smashed them. The pies are a really disciplined team but they stick to their season long gameplan rather than having the flexibility to apply tactics to a new opponent every week. Also, giving many of their dangerous forwards (Didak, Medhurst & to some extent Davis) licence to roam might just be sacrificing some scoring opportunities later in the game. That being said I still wouldn’t back against any of them for most goals this week.
I think Reiwoldt for most goals tonight was a good call J-Mac. With Gehrig out hopefully he plays closer to home. Worry would be Lloyd but he is so reliant on his pace and beating his opponents off the mark. Hudghton has great closing speed and will play tight. Skills and decision making are questionable but that’s irrelevant. As long as he stops Lloyd kicking goals.
I think same can almost be said for Croad on Brown. A little different but same principle. If Brown gets marks inside 50 this week it won’t be easy for him and will probably be contested.
I think Cats v Sydney is a tough one in most touches and goals markets. I won’t put huge amounts on most disposals in a Sydney match this season. Will be interested to see how Brent Prismall goes. Won’t be offered in markets but he’s had 35+ touches on a couple of occasions this year in the 2’s and might get a bit of it. Another in this game in good reserves form is Nick Davis. Kicked 8 last week in the curtain raiser and 5 the week before. 13 in 2 weeks is impressive. Resrves for AFL clubs is still a high standard of footy and silly to not respect those stats.
I didn’t watch the Tigers game last week but how did Kane Johnson get thirty whatever touches??? Isn’t he a tagger?
Fev should be right for most goals in his game.