AFL Round 3 Preview
April 4, 2008 by jmac33Good day avid readers. Hopefully you filled up your betting accounts last weekend with Geelong +40 like I did. It was my tip of the round and as such I included it in all my multi-bets. And whilst I’m bragging, I did ok with the Champions League (posted below) too by picking two first scorers and a result, all paying between $6.50 and $7.00.
Now that I have hopefully convinced you that I am not a muppet trying to tip you into losers for the benefit of my organisation, I will say that I am not confident on anything AFL this week except a Geelong and Collingwood victory but backing them won’t exactly pay off the mortgage. Rivalry round makes good entertainment but it’s sure hard to back a winner.
St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
The Saints are all the rage here but I’m not buying into them just yet. If they can dispatch the Dogs impressively tonight then I may jump on, but at this stage I’ll wait for evidence rather than hype. Saints fans this week keep telling me that the Dogs backline is just too short for the St Kilda forwards. Whilst they are undersized, don’t underestimate the feisty Dale Morris who will match Reiwoldt aerobically and don’t overestimate Fraser Gehrig’s ability because he is no good. Kozi is the barometer and if he stands tall tonight then he could prove a match winner but St Kilda’s forward line is far from a certainty to dominate. As for the midfield, I think the Bulldogs are just as good if not better. Steven Baker’s absence will hurt because an untagged Cooney can win a game. And in my opinion, Cross, West, Griffin, Boyd and Giansiracusa are just as good as Dal Santo, Hayes, Ball and Montagna. Plus Hudson will be as effective as any ruckmen.
Tip: I’ll go with the popular St Kilda but not by much. I’m not gonna put my money where my mouth is here because the line is simply to small (I would take the Dogs at +25 but not +15) but I’ll be cheering on the Dogs as if I have a financial stake.
Most disposals: Daniel Cross. West and an untagged Cooney are the only rivals because St Kilda share the load with 20-25 touches each.
Most goals: Kozi is normally a favourite of mine in this market but he has let me down lately. I’ll give him one more chance.
North Melbourne vs Hawthorn
I’m a big Hawks fan (backed them last week 
) but this game will be a test and I think their price is too short. North beat them in the finals last year and that was not an accident. Dean Laidley and his staff believe their contested brand of football can stop the non-stop running of Hawthorn and will look to repeat last year as best they can. Having said that, I think Hawthorn has improved whilst North haven’t.
Tip: Hawks by a few goals but it won’t be easy.
Most disposals: Can’t go past Sam Mitchell in this market but I like the returning Jordan Lewis. The future All-Australian will be itching to get out there after being suspended for games one and two.
Most goals: Jarryd Roughead. All the defensive focus by North has been on Buddy, as it should be, but teams shouldn’t sleep on the guy that was drafted ahead of him in 2004.
West Coast vs Fremantle
Anything can happy in derbies and it usually does. I can’t confidently pick a winner here and if you can then you’re delusional and probably just an optimistic supporter of one of the teams. West Coast let me down big time last week but I’m prepared to gamble on them again; only because it is their home game. Obviously Subiaco is the home venue for both teams but the stadium will be filled with 40 000+ Eagles supporters and that may be enough to get them over the line. I like that they are the outsider too, despite playing a team that hasn’t won yet. Fremantle have played some strong opposition but they haven’t shown enough ticker or midfield pace to warrant my support just yet.
Tip: West Coast by two goals at the most.
Most disposals: I’ll stick with Matthew Priddis who has looked after me well so far.
Most goals: Matthew Pavlich is the only big goal kicker playing so he gets my support (IQ21 aka Quinten Lynch does not rate as a consistent full forward).
Brisbane vs Sydney
The NSW vs QLD stage of origin rivalry is a bit stronger than the AFL version but a rivalry does exist, despite Sydney winning all of the contests since 2004 except the draw in round 20 last year. The mighty Brisbane Lions are my team of choice so I’ll be cheering them on passionately but if I had to have a bet it would be on Sydney. They don’t deserve to be outsiders after such a comprehensive display over last year’s grand finalists and they have had the wood over Brisbane recently.
Tip: Sydney by one goal but I hope I’m wrong.
Most disposals: Luke Power. Power has been in great form this year and I think he will get less attention than Black, Johnstone or Goodes.
Most goals: Jonathan Brown. Who else?
Essendon vs Carlton
This contest will be a goal fest and will certainly be enjoyable to watch. I don’t think Essendon deserve to be such heavy favourites, so on that notion ill take the outsider. Also, I tipped Carlton to finish higher on the ladder than Essendon so for that to occur Carlton would need to start earning some premiership points.
Tip: Carlton 131 defeat Essendon 118.
Most disposals: Brent Stanton. Doesn’t like taggers but probably won’t see any in this match.
Most goals: Brendon Fevola. The Fevolution has yet to kick a bag in 08 but should jag a couple in this high scoring contest. Dustin Fletcher will be very worthy opposition though because he can match Fev with pace.
Geelong vs Melbourne
Geelong by 100 if it is a clear, sunny day with no breeze. Geelong by 70 if it’s a little windy. Geelong by 50 if its pouring rain and a hurricane is nearby.
Tip: Geelong by plenty.
Most disposals: Jimmy Bartel. The Brownlow medalist had 37 touches last week and will still receive less attention from the opposition than Baby Jesus.
Most goals: Ryan Gamble. Kicked the most goals in the preseason and looked in form with three cherry picking goals last week. He will be good value and is just as likely as anyone else.
Richmond vs Collingwood
Richmond will lift to play their rivals but Collingwood are too good. A nine day break will also help the Pies recover from a taxing loss at the Gabba.
Tip: Collingwood by 30.
Most disposals: Dane Swan. Who else?
Most goals: Brett Deledio. Kicked five last time they played and is due for a few sausage roles in 08, providing he stays forward.
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide
The showdown and the derby will be as good as any game this weekend and are equally hard to tip. In recent encounters the outsider has usually won so I’ll take last year’s grand finalists. The Power have yet to win in 08 and could remain that way after round 3 because they have the hardest draw of any of the teams.
Tip: Port by 8.
Most disposals: Jason Porplyzia. Plenty of players could take out this market but I expect Kane Cornes to do more locking down than finding the footy which leaves this market open. I’ll take the rising star as a roughy.
Most goals: Simon Goodwin. I’ll stick with a good thing here (pun intended) because I don’t think any player in the young Power defense can matchup with him.
Love your work jmac. I enjoyed the 2 first goal scorers in the Champions League during the week but its the AFL insight that has got me thinking. Last week I went against your well informed judgement on a few occassions. I took Luke Power for most disposals against the pies and was shattered to narrowly miss. His short kicks (keeping the ball in his vicinity) gives him opportunity for follow up handball recieves, his big engine and good game time with a licence to roam again makes him a perfect candidate this week in a high pressure style game from Sydney. He can be in and under but also able to lurk around the packs at times for cheap touches. Although he fell short last week he is one of those players that will get to the contest to the very end of the game when it may come down to those last few disposals. So obviously he’s my favourite from all markets. Only concern is his good skill might lead Roos to consider him as too damaging to let fly under the radar. I often like getting on midfielders who make lots of contests that perhaps dont have the skill to bother tagging. Such as Priddis, Carrazzo, Swan and the likes. No midfielders from St Kilda or Port were able to get more than 20 odd touches against the Swans which makes me very scepticle. However, upon closer inspection of the stats I think it was the Saints gameplan in Round 1 to kick long. (not good for most disposals betting) I hope Brisbane can trust their skill and composure this week and are happy to mess around with it. (i.e. handball) Hopefully Power can get on the end of a few of those. The other most disposals bet I like is a little roughie called Rhys Palmer (Freo). I think this will be a tight game but I don’t think West Coast will dominate possession. If given the opportunity this kid can step up. Doesn’t matter if he can handle the pressure of a Derby and hit targets, just needs to get around it. I think West Coast will get over the line in a tight one. Hadn’t really considered Porplyzia for most possessions but I like it. He’s in my fantasy team, has been getting alot more time in the middle and attacks the ball. However, from memory… is happy to support the ball carrier and shepherd which you don’t like to see. Always have to feel more confident when you’re on a stat pig that almost gets angry at team mates for not giving up the ball for them. Not naming anyone in particular… Heath Scotland & Jess Sinclair. Right, Goal kicking. Last week I went complete outsiders. Got on Grant and Jones cos I thought Kangas would smash the tigers so was happy there. I took Stokes as a roughie hoping Johnson and Chapman would be well minded and that Mal and Dustin could do the job on Mooney and Scarlett would take care of Lloyd. Wasn’t happy when I saw him leading up the wing in the last term and even less so when he cramped up running into goal in the last little bit of the game to take equal top goals. Took your advice on Seaby, hadn’t previously considered him. Did nothing last week but will be interested to see how he goes this week. I think Subi is a good for set shots kinda ground and I think Pav will kick 4 to take that games leading goal scorer. Last week was outsiders but this week I think with rivalry round some of the games big forwards will be pumped and I doubt there will be big bags of 7 or 8 but Brown & Pav should stand out in their games. I agree the Dees will get hammered, but the ball won’t make it to the Cats full forward line. Goals on the run I think is a more likely outcome. So I dont think at skilled stadium Gamble will be able to cherry pick another 5. Your pick last week Chapman could snag 4 or 5 from mid range. Depending on who Gibson and Firrito take of Franklin, Roughead and Boyle Roughead a good pick of that lot but the Hawks have running by players such as Osbourne, Young, Bateman etc to kick one each and take goals from them. I like Thompson in this one against his old side. Might not have had Croad been right. A good big game player I have to mention is Medhurst. Never put money on him for most goals before but I think the Pies will win quite easily and he could get on the end of a couple. One of my favourite bet types is either team by under 24.5 points or either team by 15.5 points. Great option as Aussie rules is such a momentum based game and many teams when clearly winning often rest their guns. Being rivalry round, passionate, feirce games this is even more likely to occur. Best not used in high scoring games. Lower overall match scores are a better pick for this one. I like this option for all 3 interstate games and the north v hawks encounter. For the line this week I’d take the Pies, Kangas and Bombers. Pies for half time/fulltime aswell. They really just shouldnt lose that one or be down at any stage. Got a feeling that could be a low scoring game. Richmond lowest score for the round a possibility. Agreed that bombers/blues could be a shootout and dons for rounds highest score I wont get on but would be my pick. If cats beat the dees 130odd to 60odd then that leaves it wide open for other teams to get rounds highest or lowest scores. Either way, happy punting. Thanks for the advice. I look forward to next weeks post.
Thanks for the kind words E-Mac and glad someone is reading the blog. Last week was obviously not a good week for me tipping wise as the slight outsiders didn’t salute like I thought they would but I was never confident going in and didn’t wage any of my hard earned on them. Plus when I post just before kick off on Friday evening the blog is rushed without my usual research. This week I’ll strive to get better returns and am feeling very confident with the upcoming matches. Anything less than 6 tips would be disgusting.
In response to a couple things you said: Medhurst had a super game on the weekend and is really flying. I used to be a big Megastar fan when he was over in the west but I can’t cheer on blokes in the black and white as a Brisbane supporter. Wish I had him in my dream team though cause the Pies I do have (Didak, H Shaw & Wood) have looked after me. He is certainly one to keep an eye on in the first goal, most goals and most disposals (if entered) every week.
I’m a big Roughead fan and disappointed that he always seems to kick one less goal than Buddy. I think he’ll finish fifth in the Coleman behind Buddy, Browny, Fev and Pav. Too bad there isn’t a market for that because I would get good odds.
Yer I thought Lukey Power would be good this week too. Blacky was always going to get bogged down by Kirk so Power was definitely over the odds. I actually meant to have a few dollars on Tadgh Kennelly but lucky I didn’t cause the Irishmen just came up short.
I should have had cash on Fev and Pav to kick most goals despite being short favourites. Very silly.
The Collingwood halftime/fulltime bet was a certainty and very smart. I should have had a bit myself but my only real result bet for the week was Hawks into Pies into Cats. I got on the Bombers to top score for the round at $11 (despite tipping Carlton) so that was nice also. Sorry for forgetting to include that in the blog.
Anyway Macca, cheers for the comment and I’ll do my best to be more successful this week and to also consider more of the betting options such as halftime/fulltime. Happy punting.