All-out attack may win fans but not EPL titles

Something weird is happening in the EPL. Defence is non-existent. Teams aren’t settling for one-goal leads. It’s all-out attack: you score three, we’ll score four.

The ‘Special One’ had Chelsea conceding less than a goal every two games (15 goals in 38) when they won the league in 2004–05. Once the Blues went ahead, that was that. Game over.

It worked and the other big boys tightened up, too, seeing 1–0 results become the norm.

But that’s changed this season, with the most ridiculous scorelines coming when the top clubs clash: Arsenal 5, Chelsea 3; Man City 6, Man Utd 1; Man Utd 8, Arsenal 2; Man City 5, Tottenham 1; Tottenham 4, Liverpool 0.

United has been the first to react. After getting demoralised by City late last month, Sir Alex Ferguson changed the gameplan. And it may well prove a pivotal moment in the title race.

“It’s about time we won 1–0,” Ferguson said after the Red Devils held off Everton the very next week. Then came 1–0 wins over Sunderland and Swansea. Three 1–0 results in a row having previously conceded 12 goals in nine matches. Coincidence? Not likely. Be sure to take that into account when looking at the overs/unders market.

There was a theory bandied about that the goal glut was the result of a higher class of attacking players across the EPL. But as United went from scoring 25 goals in those same nine games to just three in three, their defensive woes miraculously disappeared.

It is clearly a question of mindset rather than a lack of quality defenders or unstoppable strikers, but what works? Yes, 8–2 results are hugely entertaining, but in no way are they sustainable. And while 1–0 matches can rob fans of the chance to see the top creators play with adventure for fear a mistake could lead to an equaliser, the thing that is most important to supporters in the end is the three points.

We know what Sir Alex prefers. Jose Mourinho, too. And we know what wins trophies. But the new Chelsea man, Andres Villas-Boas, sees things differently – as evidenced by the fact he conceded as many goals in 11 games as Mourinho’s Blues did in an entire season. So, is the EPL’s goal glut over after all?