Tri-Nations – Springboks v Wallabies Betting Preview

Posted by gmorgan on Aug 13, 2011 in Super Rugby | 0 comments

South Africa v AustraliaKings Park Stadium, Durban
Sunday 14th August 2011

Strange as it may sound, last week’s painful shellacking at the hands of the All Blacks may actually benefit the Wallabies in the long run.
For that miserable evening in Auckland revealed in no uncertain terms that simply trying to become an international version of the Queensland Reds will not lift Australia to the summit of world rugby.
The silky, caution-to-the-wind approach employed so effectively by Cooper, Genia and co at Super Rugby level simply cannot function if the forwards are not supplying the steel and there was precious little of that on show from the visitors’ pack last weekend
It also helps to have a referee who keeps the opposition on side at least occasionally, but that is a debate for another day.
In the face of the All Blacks’ forward power and ferocious defensive work, the men in green and gold simply melted into the Eden Park gloom.
Rocky Elsom and Ben McCalman were second-best in the loose, Rob Simmons showed his inexperience in the line-out and Quade Cooper found himself outclassed by opposite number Dan Carter.
A combination of slow ball, high-pressure defence and an overly-tolerant referee forced Cooper deeper and deeper into the pocket to receive, preventing him from releasing a flat ball into the backline and as a result, his attacking threat was all but nullified.
One defeat, however, does not spell disaster.
Indeed there were still some positives to come out of the game including a spirited display from the front row at scrum-time and another impressive performance from Digby Ione,
But ultimately the Wallabies failed to match the physical intensity of the men in black and having lost that battle, no amount of flair behind the scrum was going to get them out of trouble.
Now another huge physical test looms in the form of a Springboks side bolstered by the apparently miraculous return from injury of a host of big names who were reportedly not fit enough to be considered for the first two games of the tournament.
The Wallabies have responded by handing a deserved first start to Scott Higginbotham who enjoyed a stellar year with the Reds, has impressed in his recent international cameos off the bench and should provide some much-needed go-forward at the ruck.
The same can be said of Nathan Sharpe who replaces Rob Simmons at lock and will relish the opportunity to lock horns, yet again, with old foe Victor Matfield.
The only other changes for the visitors come on the bench where Sitaleki Timani is included in the absence of Dan Vickerman who has remained in Sydney, Salesi Ma’afu replaces Pek Cowan and Lachie Turner’s spot goes to Radike Samo as Robbie Deans opts for a five forwards – two backs split.
For the hosts, meanwhile, only two of the players who started against the Wallabies in Sydney last month have been named in the Kings Park run-on side.
The men retaining their places are John Smit and Danie Rossouw and they are joined by most of the Springbok big guns including Fourie du Preez, Bryan Habana, Jean De Villiers, Jaque Fourie, Pierre Spies, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
Butch James has been given the nod at number ten ahead of Morne Steyn while Tendai “Beast” Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis will slot in alongside skipper Smit to form an all-Sharks front row.
Coach Peter de Villiers’ controversial decision to rest so many of his regular starters for the last two games means that a number of them have now not played a competitive game for some seven weeks and it will be interesting to see whether they come into the game rested and refreshed or slightly underdone.
The Springboks do not boast anywhere near the same scintillating counter-attacking prowess as the All Blacks so, like their forwards, their backs will look to pummel the Wallabies into submission rather than try and run them off the park.
Butch James will need no second invitation to tests out the visitors’ back three with high bombs, while centres De Villiers and Fourie will seek to punch holes in midfield through which the likes of Rossouw and Heinrich Brussow will look to rampage.
There will be little mystery or subtlety to the South African gameplan, but even though they know exactly what to expect, the question remains as to whether Robbie Deans’ men can effectively counter it.
The inclusion of Sharpe will certainly improve the visitors’ presence at the line-out, while the combative and in-form Higginbotham will relish getting down and dirty at the breakdown.
If the Wallabies’ forwards can match the physicality of the Springboks and provide a solid attacking platform for the backs, the superior attacking skills of Will Genia, Cooper, Kurtley Beale and James O’Connor should prove the difference between the two sides.
Having won four of the last five meetings between the two countries, including last year’s historic victory in Bloemfontein, the Aussies will certainly not be fearful of their opponents and playing at sea level in Durban rather than on the high veldt will further assist their cause.
There is unlikely to be much in it, but Deans’ men are capable of bouncing back and keeping their Tri Nations title hopes alive with a precious, hard-fought away win that will be well worth staying up for.