Tri Nations Betting Preview – New Zealand v South Africa
Tri Nations 2011 – Round 2
New Zealand v South AfricaWestpac Stadium, Wellington
Saturday 30th July 2011
Tri Nations favourites New Zealand make their bow in this year’s competition on Saturday (kick off 5.30pm AEST) and will be installed as almost unbackable favourites to see off what is for all intents and purposes a second-string South African side.
The All Blacks have opted to rest several key men themselves, but have not gone as far as the Springboks whose twenty-one “injured” players are remarkably fit enough to currently be attending a training camp back in the Republic.
Yet while the visitors’ coach Peter de Villiers copped plenty of criticism in the Australian press for leaving most of his big-hitters at home, he has received support for his decision from All Blacks assistant coach Steve Hansen who has claimed that no-one in Australia, New Zealand or South Africa will even remember what happened in this year’s Tri Nations if their side goes on to lift the World Cup in October.
He may well be correct, but the Kiwis are still treating the competition with a degree of respect and will use the games to trial and finalise preferred combinations rather than experiment with a host of untested international performers.
Forwards Kieran Read, Kevin Mealamu, Brad Thorn and Owen Franks are the quartet who have been allocated some extra recovery time ahead of next week’s Bledisloe Cup clash with the Wallabies in Auckland and coach Graham Henry has made four other personnel changes to the side that downed Fiji last time out.
Dan Carter predictably returns at number ten in place of Colin Slade who cemented his spot as the back-up fly-half with an accomplished 19-point display last weekend, while out wide Cory Jane comes in for Sitiveni Sivivatu. Jane’s return after recovering from a broken finger means Zac Guildford moves to the left wing.
There had been plenty of speculation that Sonny Bill Williams would start in the centres against the Springboks, but the former rugby league star has in fact been selected on the bench with Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith named in the run-on side.
In the pack, meanwhile, Liam Messam has paid the price for an indifferent performance against the Fijians, with versatile Highlander Adam Thomson replacing him at number eight and Jerome Kaino and Richie McCaw completing a dynamic and abrasive back row.
Sam Whitelock returns in place of Jarrad Hoeata to partner Ali Williams in the second-row and Henry will be hoping to see a significant improvement at line-out time after some uncharacteristic sloppiness crept into that area last week.
Missing out once again on Saturday will be Tony Woodcock (foot), Hosea Gear, Richard Kahui (both hamstring), Isaia Toeava (hip), and Israel Dagg (thigh muscle), but all five could come into contention to face the Wallabies.
As for the ‘Boks, they too have made four changes to the side mauled in Sydney last weekend, including a debutant in the form of Gerhard Mostert. The 26-year-old lock will replace Flip van der Merwe whose rib injury has forced him to head home along with fellow second-rower Johann Muller who was sidelined by a hamstring problem earlier in the tour.
Flanker Jean Desyel comes in for Ashley Johnson, with Danie Rossouw moving to number eight, while behind the scrum, Patrick Lambie will start at full-back in place of the injured Gio Aplon and Adi Jacobs gets the nod at outside centre ahead of Wynand Olivier.
John Smit struggled to find too many positives in the wake of last week’s defeat at the hands of the Wallabies and the Springboks skipper knows he and his largely inexperienced colleagues are in for another long evening in Wellington.
They are likely to find themselves under huge pressure in the scrum and the line-out and if their backs defend like they did at times in Sydney, the All Blacks could quite easily blow them away to the tune of 50 points or more.
Quite how Ruan Pienaar has retained his place following his performance last weekend is anyone’s guess and although it is refreshing to see the hugely promising Patrick Lambie promoted to the run-on side, it’s disappointing to see him being named at full-back rather than fly-half. Morne Steyn’s supremely accurate goal-kicking is presumably the main reason he continues to hang onto the number ten jersey and in fairness, his conservative, safety-first style is probably better-suited to a game where the ‘Boks are likely to be under the cosh than Lambie’s more expansive approach.
Smit will set a new world record when he leads his side out for the 78th time in Wellington, but he is likely to have precious little else to celebrate and it will represent a genuine achievement for the visitors if can keep the margin of defeat below twenty points.
For the All Blacks, meanwhile, the game fits neatly into their build-up towards both next week’s Bledisloe Cup clash and September’s World Cup. Having shaken off some ring rust against limited Fiji, they will be keen to lift their game against higher quality opposition on Saturday before slipping into something resembling top gear against the Wallabies.
Clearly still working through a number of tactical nuances, the hosts are expected to continue regularly pushing the likes of Williams and McCaw into midfield in a bid to force turnovers with vigorous counter-rucking when defending and punch holes in the opposition’s backline when on the front foot.
Such an approach relies on watertight ball-retention, however and the Kiwis will doubtless use the game to practice starving the opposition of possession.
The home fans will thoroughly enjoy seeing their heroes dismantle even this shadow Springbok side, while coach Henry will relish the opportunity to gather some more food for thought both in terms of tactics and personnel.
And for the visitors, it’s simply a matter of trying to reproduce the admirable level of commitment they displayed against the Wallabies in a bid to keep the scoreline respectable.
Prediction: New Zealand 50-12 South Africa
First try-scorer – Adam Thomson crossed the line six times for the Highlanders last season and is a decent value bet to do the same for the All Blacks.
4 views
Recent Comments