Springboks v All Blacks – Tri Nations Game 5

South Africa v New ZealandNelson Mandela Bay Stadium, Port Elizabeth
Sunday 21st August 2011

Ponderous, sterile and predictable were three of the kinder adjectives used to describe the Springboks’ performance against the Wallabies last weekend and if the men from the Republic fail to show a significant level of improvement against the All Blacks in Port Elizabeth on Sunday (Australian time), the media knives will again be out for coach Peter de Villiers.
The home side have now lost eight of their last nine Tri Nations outings and although de Villiers has pointed out with some justification that nobody in South Africa will even remember this year’s tournament if they go on to lift the World Cup in October, on current evidence that looks highly unlikely to happen.
With Schalk Burger and Juan Smith the only big name absentees from the side that was downed by Australia in Durban, it’s not as if de Villiers can call upon any world class cavalry to gallop onto the paddock and save the day.
Having promised a dramatic overhaul of both playing style and personnel when he succeeded Jake White, de Villiers has delivered neither.
The Springboks remain one-paced and one-dimensional, still seemingly convinced that the high bomb and a bulldozer approach from the pack will be enough to see off the world’s best despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
And no fewer than twelve of the side that lifted the 2007 World Cup could start their first pool game of the 2011 tournament against Wales.
As far as this weekend’s Port Elizabeth clash is concerned, de Villiers has opted to make five changes to his starting fifteen, two in the backs and three in the pack.
Morne Steyn comes in for Butch James at fly-half, although hopefully the recalled Patrick Lambie may move from full-back to number ten at some point in the game, while up front Bismarck du Plessis replaces the rested John Smit and is joined by fellow front-rower Gurthro Steenkamp and flanker Willem Alberts.
Smit, Danie Rossouw and Butch James are among those named on a strong-looking bench and Victor Matfield will captain the side as he wins his 107th cap.
Scrum-half Fourie du Preez will be keen to impress after a strangely lack-lustre display last week and much will again be expected of Pierre Spies who was arguably the Springboks’ best on ground in that Durban defeat.
There seems little doubt that the hosts will be sharper for that hit-out against the Wallabies, but whether de Villiers is willing or able to devise the more innovative game plan required to beat the All Blacks remains to be seen.
Fortunately for the ‘Boks, New Zealand coach Graham Henry has opted to leave both Dan Carter and Richie McCaw at home and also rest the world’s best centre pairing of Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith.
Having said that, it is still a powerful All Blacks side that will rumble onto the field hoping to improve upon a miserable record at Port Elizabeth which has seen defeated on all four of their previous visits.
Keven Mealamu will skipper the side in McCaw’s absence and will be joined by in the front row by the newly-fit Tony Woodcock and the in-form John Afoa.
Brad Thorn makes way for Sam Whitelock in the second row and there is also a reshuffle in the back row where Liam Messam comes in at number eight, Adam Thomson starts on the openside and Jerome Kaino continues on the blindside.
Jimmy Cowan and Colin Slade make up the halves, with the latter rapidly establishing his credentials as a fine understudy to Carter, Richard Kahui and Sonny Bill Williams are paired in the centres for the first time, Isaia Toeava gets the nod on the right wing and the elusive Israel Dagg will start at full-back.
Coach Henry seems to have a pretty clear idea of what his first-choice starting fifteen is, but several World Cup squad places remain very much up for grabs and the likes of Williams, Kahui, Messam and Afoa will be keenly aware of the need to press their claims for selection.
The ‘Boks are unlikely to run out of gas as dramatically as they did after fifty minutes or so against the Wallabies and could enjoy some early success against an All Blacks side that may take some time to gel given the number of changes made in key areas.
Once the visitors do start to slip into gear, however, Dagg and Toeava will look to expose lumbering South African forwards in broken play, while Williams’ mobility and freakish off-loading ability should keep the home side’s defence guessing all afternoon.
The All Blacks pack, meanwhile, will ask plenty of questions of their South African counterparts who were not overly convincing in the set pieces against Australia last time out and provided Slade can do his best Carter impression in driving his side around the park, they should do enough to win it.
South Africa will improve, but not by enough to spare their coach another grilling.

Prediction: South Africa 15-22 New Zealand

First try-scorer – with South Africa likely to start quickly, Pierre Spies looks a decent value bet for the first five-pointer

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