Bledisloe Cup Preview
2011 Tri Nations Round 6
Bledisloe Cup
Australia v New ZealandSuncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Saturday 27th August 2011
Not ideal is probably the kindest way to describe the Wallabies’ build-up to Saturday night’s Tri Nations decider against the All Blacks in Brisbane.
From the captaincy issue, to James O’Connor’s no show at the official World Cup squad announcement and rumours of an in-squad brawl on last year’s tour of Europe, coach Robbie Deans has had plenty to contend with as he prepares his side for a game that could have profound psychological implications ahead of the World Cup.
Victory for the Wallabies at Suncorp would not be enough to prise the Bledisloe Cup out of Kiwi hands, but it would serve notice that the men in green and gold are a genuine chance to take out the game’s biggest prize in October.
And combined with a number of issues emerging from their awful performance against the Springboks last week, that would be enough to at least dent the All Blacks’ cast-iron self-confidence.
The Wallabies must overcome a psychological hurdle or two themselves, however, if they are to down the men in black.
Having travelled to Auckland last month bubbling with confidence, they found themselves blown away in the opening quarter by a home side whose intensity seemed to catch them completely off-guard.
How much long-term damage that Eden Park hammering has done to Deans’ charges remains to be seen, but if they don’t front up right from the off in Saturday’s encounter, things could get ugly once again.
Three changes have been made from the side that defeated South Africa in Durban a fortnight ago, with Radike Samo coming in for Reds colleague Scott Higginbotham at number eight, Dan Vickerman replacing Nathan Sharpe in the second-row and the suspension of James O’Connor creating an opportunity for Anthony Fainga’a to start in the centres following Adam Ashley-Cooper’s switch to the right wing.
While Samo deserves his place on the back of a superb season for Queensland and Fainga’a has also impressed during several recent cameos off the bench, Dan Vickerman will need to produce his very best if he is to match Sharpe’s superbly rugged display against the Springboks last time out.
Stephen Moore, Ben Alexander and Sekope Kepu have been handed the opportunity to reinforce the growing feeling that the scrum may no longer be the Wallabies’ Achilles heel, while in the backs, Quade Cooper will be desperate to make up for his forgettable display during that Auckland defeat.
But if the Wallabies’ preparations have been problematic, not everything is rosy in the All Blacks’ garden either.
Coach Graham Henry may have taken a weakened team to South Africa last week, but he must have been privately incensed by the way they allowed themselves to be dictated to by a limited, one-paced Springboks side employing a gameplan that hasn’t changed since 2007.
Publicly he blamed a lack of maturity for the defeat and remains confident that with his best side on the park, New Zealand have the tactical nous to successfully counter the South Africans’ predictable approach.
For rugby’s sake, let’s just hope that proves to be the case.
In making his selection for Saturday’s Trans-Tasman clash, Henry has included ten of the side that defeated the Wallabies in Auckland, with the likes of Dan Carter and Richie McCaw back in the fold after being rested last weekend.
Piri Weepu has got the nod to start at scrum-half, with Jimmy Cowan rather surprisingly left out of the squad altogether, Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu have been restored to the centres, the wing berths have been allocated to Cory Jane and Zac Guildford and Mils Muliaina comes in at full-back despite Israel Dagg’s scintillating display in Port Elizabeth.
Up front, meanwhile, Owen Franks returns at prop, lock Ali Williams is a notable absentee with Sam Whitelock handed the opportunity to partner Brad Thorn and Adam Thomson will start at blindside flanker due to Jerome Kaino’s unavailability for personal reasons.
Much has been made of the Wallabies’ excellent track record of 15 wins from 18 Tests at Suncorp, but those three defeats have all been at the hands of New Zealand, the most recent coming in 2008.
And let’s face it, the All Blacks are not the kind of side to be overly-concerned by venues anyway.
What they should be concerned by, however, is the way the Australian forwards muscled up against the Springboks in Durban a fortnight ago.
Yes the “Boks were underdone and faded dramatically after the break, but the Wallabies’ pack stood firm throughout in the set-piece, were ferocious at the breakdown and seeing that the backs were enduring something of an off-day, took it upon themselves to knuckle down and get the job done.
The front row were nothing short of magnificent, Sharpe and Horwill superb and Rocky Elsom showed that those predicting his demise may yet be proved wrong.
A similarly intense, confrontational defensive effort will be required to see off the All Blacks, while the backs will need to sharpen up both their handling and their decision-making and ensure that their kick chase is disciplined enough to prevent the visitors’ dangerous back three from creating havoc in broken play.
A more mature, rounded performance will be required from Cooper and the super-confident fly-half must also get his goal-kicking eye in because the Wallabies simply cannot afford to be as wasteful off the tee as they have been in recent Tests.
The Suncorp Stadium atmosphere will undoubtedly lift the home side and they should improve significantly upon that Auckland performance, but still look likely to come up just short.
Prediction: Australia 22-27 New Zealand
First try-scorer: Radike Samo loves a run and will be desperate to impress on his return to the international arena in front of his home fans. Worth a flutter.
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