Bledisloe Cup Betting Preview
Bledisloe Cup
New Zealand v AustraliaEden Park, Auckland
Saturday 6th August 2011
It may technically be Round 3, but Saturday’s Bledisloe Cup clash between the All Blacks and the Wallabies in Auckland effectively marks the first meaningful contest of this season’s Tri Nations series.
South Africa’s controversial decision to field dramatically weakened sides in both Sydney and Wellington rendered those two Tests little more than warm-up games for the home sides ahead of this Eden Park showdown.
And it has the makings of a true classic.
As is invariably the case when these two old foes lock horns, there are intriguing sub-plots aplenty.
Victory for Australia would not only put them in pole position in terms of taking out the Tri Nations title, but would also, more importantly, earn them a significant psychological advantage ahead of next month’s World Cup.
Robbie Deans’ men have an opportunity to end a barren run that has seen them fail to win on Kiwi soil for ten years and at Eden Park since 1986 and thereby send out a clear message that the prospect of a trip across the Tasman no longer chills the blood of those clad in green and gold.
It would also spell out in no uncertain terms that they are a very serious threat to the All Blacks’ dream of a home World Cup victory and not merely a bunch of over-hyped fancy-dans whose expansive, flamboyant approach will crumble in the face of sustained forward pressure.
Make no mistake, New Zealand’s eternal rugby superiority complex has been rattled by both the Wallabies’ recent improvements and Queensland’s Super Rugby triumph and coach Graham Henry is under even greater pressure than usual to put the Aussie upstarts back in their box.
In his bid to do exactly that, Henry has very much gone for the tried and tested, picking the oldest team in All Blacks history, a side that boasts no fewer than 766 caps at an average of more than 50 per man.
Leading the way in age is 36-year-old Brad Thorn who returns to partner Ali Williams in the second-row, while Kieran Read comes in for Adam Thomson at number eight and there are a further two changes in the front row with Kevin Mealamu starting at hooker and Owen Franks replacing injured brother Ben at tighthead prop.
Elsewhere, a sensational display against South Africa has not been enough to prevent Cory Jane from being dropped from the squad altogether, with Sitiveni Sivivatu coming in and Hosea Gear replacing Zac Guildford on the other wing.
Piri Weepu replaces another strong performer against the Springboks, Jimmy Cowan, at half-back, but Sonny-Bill Williams will again have to make his impact off the bench as Henry has opted to stick with the centres combination of Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith.
In contrast to the hosts’ much-changed run-on side, the Wallabies have named the same fifteen that started against the ‘Boks a fortnight ago, with Robbie Deans restricting his tinkering to the bench. Dan Vickerman, Luke Burgess and Lachie Turner all come back in as the visitors revert to the conventional four-forward, three-back split among the replacements.
Inevitably the All Blacks will start as strong favourites, not least because of their formidable home record, but there is a quiet confidence developing within this Wallabies outfit and unlike some previous visiting sides, they genuinely believe they can win.
The set-pieces will of course be hugely significant and while the visitors look likely to find it tough at scrum-time, they should more than hold their own in the line-out where the home side have not been entirely convincing thus far this season.
With both sides boasting wonderfully gifted back threes, meanwhile, the quality of the open-field kicking and the chasing down of those kicks will be hugely important, as will the performance of the respective back-rows at the breakdown where David Pocock and co must prevent Richie McCaw from indulging in his customary turnover skulduggery.
Digby Ione will have a key role to play defensively as he slots in to cover for Quade Cooper’s deficiencies in that area and it will be interesting to see how the in-form Will Genia adapts to playing behind a pack that could find itself on the back foot for long periods of the game.
In terms of putting the All Blacks under pressure, meanwhile, coach Deans will not have missed the fact that they have not functioned especially well at the re-start in their most recent outings and the visitors therefore look certain to try and exploit this apparent flaw at every opportunity.
Two factors that neither side can control are of course are the referee and the weather, but both would seemingly favour the Wallabies.
Experienced South African Craig Joubert will be on whistle duty and traditionally likes to police the breakdown pretty firmly, while the local forecast is for a partly cloudy day followed by a mild, dry evening; ideal conditions for running rugby.
The scene is therefore set for a cracker of a contest that should see this slow-burner of a Tri Nations finally burst into life and Aussie fans will be praying that their side can reproduce the heroics that carried them to that sensational victory over the Kiwis in Hong Kong last year.
Deans’ men will certainly not die wondering and will push the All Blacks close, but the home side’s edge up front should just be enough for them to squeeze home by five points.
Prediction: New Zealand 27-22 Australia
(Value first try-scorer – Ali Williams)
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