AFL Semi Finals Betting Preview
Hawthorn v Sydney: Friday 16/9 – 7.45pm at MCG.
Expect a fascinating tactical contest at the home of footy on Friday night as these two teams vie to get the game on their own respective terms.
RECENT FORM:
You’ve got to take your opportunities in finals matches – Hawthorn didn’t do that last Friday night.
The Hawks have struggled to regroup after their disappointing 31-point loss to Geelong – their seventh consecutive loss to the blue and white hoops. They were smashed in contested ball and gave away too many goals from stoppages. Their short kicking strategy failed in the wet against the alert Cats. Perhaps the biggest talking point from the game though was the injury to star full-forward Lance Franklin, who kicked 4.3 on the night. Franklin jarred his knee when he landed awkwardly in a marking contest and the Hawks won’t know until match day whether he’ll be fit. On a positive note, Isaac Smith was great off a wing, finishing with one goal from 24 touches.
It was a case of new coach, same story for Sydney last weekend.
The Swans scored their first win over St Kilda at Etihad Stadium since 2000 on Saturday night, eventually running out 25-point winners. The Saints kicked four consecutive goals in the third term, but the Swans, as they always do, showed resilience and pulled away. While St Kilda had more disposals and more inside 50’s for the match, the Swans had more class and fitness towards the end of the game. They were brilliantly led by co-captains Jarrad McVeigh and Adam Goodes, who finished with 26 and 25 possessions respectively, while Ryan O’Keefe booted four goals from 21 touches, five inside 50’s and six tackles in a best-on-ground performance.
WHO WINS?
Pre-finals, tipsters would’ve had little hesitation picking the winner of this game. But after last weekend’s results, anything is possible.
The Hawks came into September as the ‘sleeping giants’, but after one game, they’re in danger of going out in straight sets, which would be unjust considering the season they’ve had.
As they have all season, injuries are killing the Hawks. Not only is Franklin unlikely to play, but there are injury concerns over Luke Hodge (thigh) and Max Bailey (calf), both crucial players in the team’s set-up.
Conversely, there’s no doubt the Swans still have that competitive edge and ruthlessness at the footy that made them such a feared finals opponent under Paul Roos. And the fact they’ve progressed to the second week of the finals without Daniel Bradshaw and Craig Bolton – their full-forward and full-back – under a first-year coach makes their achievement even more remarkable.
To beat the Swans, Hawthorn will need to lift in two areas: contested ball and defence. The Cats smashed the Hawks in the contested possession count on Friday night – a stat Sydney is ranked first in. And Geelong’s long kicking inside forward 50 exposed the Hawks’ thin defence, particularly young Ryan Schoenmakers.
Once again, Shane Mumford and Goodes will hold the key to a Sydney victory. Mumford is perhaps the most in-form ruckman in the competition and will look to exploit an injured Bailey. Goodes, who will be playing his 300th game, has been in near career-best form over the past three weeks, averaging 28 possessions and two goals per game.
Perhaps the most important match-up will be between Cyril Rioli and Nick Smith. Rioli was clearly not fit against the Cats, evident by his substandard tally of 11 possessions. At the other end of the confidence spectrum, Smith restricted St Kilda’s Stephen Milne to just one goal from 14 disposals. Expect Smith to spend the majority of the game on Rioli, as the latter is expected to play most of the game deep in the goal square.
However, it’s too hard to go past the Hawks, mainly because so many players will be keen to bounce back after last weekend’s performance. Premiership players Rioli, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and Shaun Burgoyne all had less than 20 touches against the Cats and will be desperate to make amends on Friday night.
Hawthorn also has history on its side. Only two of the 22 losing qualifying final teams since 2000 have failed to bounce back in the semi-finals (Port Adelaide in 2001 and West Coast in 2007).
Despite Mumford’s inevitable dominance and the motivation of Goodes’ 300th game, the Hawks should be able to get the game on their terms and lift in the contested situations.
BEST BET:
Hawthorn by 1-39 ($2.15)
West Coast Eagles v Carlton: Saturday 17/9 – 5.50pm at Patersons Stadium.
All the pressure will be on the home side when these two proud and prestigious clubs lock horns on Saturday night.
RECENT FORM:
Despite losing by 20 points, West Coast lost no admirers against Collingwood last weekend.
The Eagles were 26 points behind the Magpies at three-quarter time, but produced a brave revival to reduce the deficit to just seven points late in the last term. In the end, they were probably a tad outclassed, with costly misses to young players Luke Shuey and Scott Selwood proving costly. The Eagles were led superbly by ruckman Nic Naitanui, who finished with 31 hit-outs, eight clearances and a goal. Darren Glass beat Chris Dawes, Ewan McKenzie took care of Travis Cloke, Beau Waters made sure Alan Didak had a quiet 200th game and first-year midfielder Andrew Gaff tried his heart out. But the Eagles weren’t able to make the most of their dominance in the hit-outs (50-29) and were thumped in the clearances (53-31).
You could almost hear the sigh of relief from Carlton coach Brett Ratten when the final siren sounded last Sunday.
The Blues achieved what they’d set out to do pre-season – win a final. They recovered from an inaccurate start to record a commanding 62-point victory over Essendon, guaranteeing Ratten another coaching contract. With skipper Chris Judd down on his usual output, Marc Murphy stepped up, accumulating 37 exquisite touches plus six clearances and five scoring assists. Ruckman Robbie Warnock stood up in the absence of Matthew Kreuzer, amassing 38 hit-outs to the Bombers’ 29. While Lachie Henderson shut down Michael Hurley and Mitch Robsinson restricted Dustin Fletcher’s influence.
WHO WINS?
Both teams come into this game with a number of players under injury clouds.
West Coast star duo Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox have been named, but whether they’ll be at their very best is questionable. Kerr missed the Eagles’ game against the Pies last weekend due to a nagging back injury, while Cox was substituted out of the match during the third quarter..
However the Blues haven’t had the same injury luck, with number one draft picks Kreuzer (foot) and Bryce Gibbs (shoulder) failing fitness tests. Despite Warnock’s impressive performance last weekend, Kreuzer would’ve been handy in the ruck and up forward on the big dimensions on Patersons Stadium, while the Blues will miss Gibbs’ accurate disposal off half-back.
But a few players certainly won’t be the difference between the two teams on Saturday night.
There is plenty of upside for the Blues, especially Judd. The skipper only had 19 touches against Essendon last weekend and you can guarantee he won’t be producing a second straight substandard performance. With plenty of incentive to go back to Perth and battle several past premiership teammates with a preliminary final on the line, Judd should be at his peak.
We must also remember Carlton is now over its September hoodoo – a scary thought for the Eagles. The Blues will go in as clear underdogs and will feel they can go for broke as they have nothing to lose now. Look for small forwards like Jeff Garlett, Eddie Betts and Andrew Walker to enjoy the wide open spaces of Subiaco.
However West Coast has had too good a season to drop the ball now.
Throughout this season, the Eagles have proved they are capable of matching and beating the best. They tested their mettle against the best in Collingwood last weekend, playing 11 players who had never played a finals game before. And there’s no doubt the experience those players received on Saturday will put the team in good stead.
The Eagles have had an amazing 2011 campaign and deserve to win a final. They’ll be primed to take advantage of their only home final and their confidence should still be sky-high after running Collingwood close.
With West Coast regaining two of its best players and the Blues missing two of their best players, expect the Eagles to win and book a preliminary final spot.
BEST BET:
West Coast Eagles line -17.5 ($2.00)
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