AFL Finals Week 1 Betting Preview
Second Qualifying Final, Geelong v Hawthorn: Friday 9/9 – 7.45pm at MCG
The forecast is for a chilly, wet and windy Friday night at the ‘G. But once these players hit the hallowed turf, the contest will be hotter than a Jennifer Hawkins photo shoot.
RECENT FORM:
If pundits doubt, knock your opposition out – that was the theory Geelong used last weekend.
The Cats made a bold statement one week out from the finals, defeating flag favourites Collingwood by a whopping 96 points. Their second quarter was mesmerising, booting 10.1 to 1.0 to put the result beyond doubt. The Cats’ intensity around the stoppages and use of the corridor exposed the Pies. Paul Chapman and Andrew Mackie had their best games for the season, while the efforts of young boys Daniel Menzel (five goals from 10 marks), Allen Christensen (three second-term goals) and Mitch Duncan (26 possessions) would’ve impressed coach Chris Scott immensely.
No doubt Hawthorn has been the AFL’s sleeping giant of 2011, receiving little praise for its 18 wins.
The Hawks come into the finals series with eight consecutive victories up their sleeve. Their latest victory over Gold Coast by nine points was far from convincing, but it still would’ve given them great confidence, seeing eight of their best 10 players were rested. Fringe player Cameron Bruce put his hand up for finals selection with 24 touches and five inside 50’s, while Luke Breust booted five goals to take his season tally to 30 from 16 matches.
WHO WINS?
With over 70,000 people expected to pack the MCG, this one is going to be a huge encounter. It could also be the most physical contest of the weekend.
Hawthorn is due for a win against Geelong. Since the infamous 2008 Grand Final, the Cats have won the past six encounters between these two teams. However, all of those were by less than 20 points. Five were in single digits.
Both teams have big bodied midfielders, who have had plenty of finals experience between them. Therefore match-up between Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel and Cameron Ling and Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell and Jordan Lewis will be crucial.
The cornerstone of the Hawks’ game plan is their ability to win the contested ball. Vice-captain Lewis recently said the team is more aggressive and unsociable this season than it was in it premiership year of 2008. Expect nothing less on Friday night.
However, what looks like getting Geelong over the line on Friday night is its defence. As coaches say, forwards win finals matches, but defenders save finals matches.
The Cats have the troops to stop Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli. Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan should contain Franklin, while Corey Enright and David Wojcinski are good enough to stop Rioli. And if the Cats trap the ball in their forward half, they won’t even have to worry about the Hawks’ indigenous stars.
After defeating the Hawks and the Magpies twice this season, the Cats will have the confidence to win this one.
BEST BET:
Geelong by 1-24 ($3.25)
First Qualifying Final, Collingwood v West Coast Eagles: Saturday 10/9 – 2.20pm at MCG.
In 2010, one of these teams finished first on the ladder and won the premiership. The other finished 16th and ‘won’ the wooden spoon. Who would’ve thought they’d be meeting each other in a qualifying final 12 months later?
RECENT FORM:
Surely Collingwood’s 96-point loss last round was an aberration – surely.
There’s no doubt the Magpies played with the first weekend of the finals at the forefront of their minds. On numerous occasions, experienced players missed crucial tackles, went into contests half-hearted and were careless with the footy. Coach Mick Malthouse rightly vented his frustration at half-time, but after such a philosophical post-match press conference, you get the feeling he wasn’t too concerned. After all, when you put Scott Pendlebury on the bench for 10 minutes after he gathered 14 touches in the first quarter, then play the vulnerable Leigh Brown down back and Cameron Wood up forward, the care factor was obviously low.
West Coast comes to Melbourne in better shape than Miranda Kerr two weeks after she gave birth.
The Eagles will host a final at some stage over the next month after finishing their resurgent home-and-away campaign with 11 wins from their past 12 matches. They had a thumping 95-point victory over Adelaide last weekend, with Chris Masten starring for the second consecutive week. The main reason behind the Eagles’ resurrection this season has been the form of their older and more experienced players. But that’s also helped young men like Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Jack Darling and Scott Selwood develop into key players.
WHO WINS?
How would the Eagles have been feeling after last Friday night’s result? Would they have been pleased the Pies went down so convincingly? Or scared at the thought of how could they bounce back? Perhaps the latter.
The last time these two teams played, Collingwood defeated West Coast by 52 points. However, the Eagles were only just realising how good they were and they’ll fancy themselves in two key areas come Saturday.
Their forward line is tall and menacing. Guys like Quinten Lynch, Darling and Josh Kennedy, plus midsized forwards Mark LeCras and Mark Nicoski, have bamboozled numerous backlines throughout the season. They’re ranked equal ninth in the competition for marks taken inside forward 50, but their ability to compete in the air, bring the ball to ground then chase rebounding defenders is invaluable.
Some think the combination of Cox and Nic Naitanui is the best the game has ever seen. Cox has played every game this season, averaging the most disposals, marks, clearances and goals of any ruckman in the competition. While the raw and freakishly athletic Naitanui has given his midfielders first use of the footy at stoppages.
However, Collingwood has what it takes to counteract the Eagles’ strengths.
Ben Reid is a lock for the centre half-back spot in this year’s All-Australian team and is more than capable of shutting down one of the Eagles’ tall forwards. Add Chris Tarrant, Heath Shaw, Nick Maxwell and Leon Davis to that side and the Pies’ defence looks rock solid.
Collingwood’s midfield is intelligent and classy too. Before Darren Jolly arrived at the club, they were forced to read taps from opposition ruckman and win clearances themselves. Therefore likes of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Luke Ball will not be intimidated by Cox and Naitanui.
Don’t worry Pies fans – your team hasn’t lost its invincibility. Remember, the Pies lost to Hawthorn in Round 22 last year then went on to win the flag. Sometimes a loss so close to the finals is the best thing for a team.
West Coast will give it a good crack, but Collingwood should be too classy in the end.
BEST BET:
Collingwood line -31.5 ($2.00)
Second Elimination Final, St Kilda v Sydney Swans: Saturday 10/9 – 7.20pm at Etihad Stadium.
Want to witness two in-form teams go head-to-head? Want to see finals footy at its best? Want to get out of Melbourne’s cold weather and watch a game under a roof? Then look no further than Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.
RECENT FORM:
Three weeks into this season, St Kilda seemed shot. Eight weeks in, St Kilda was shot. Now, St Kilda is far from shot and is about play off in an elimination final. Amazing.
You’ve got to admire what the Saints have achieved this season. They won 11 of their past 14 home-and-away games to finish in sixth position and earned themselves a home final. Their 20-point win over Carlton was impressive as they suffocated and denied the Blues of any time and space, particularly in their forward line. Also, in a somewhat positive sign, the Saints won the match without big contributions from Nick Riewoldt and Nick Dal Santo.
Sydney’s another team that comes into the final with good form and supreme confidence.
The Swans’ humiliating loss to Richmond in Round 20 was perhaps the loss they needed to have. Since then, they’ve won their past three matches, Geelong, Brisbane and, most importantly, St Kilda. There has been a distinct change in the Swans’ game plan over recent weeks, reverting back to old-fashioned one-on-one footy, rather than guarding space. Adam Goodes, Shane Mumford and Rhyce Shaw have all stepped over the past three weeks too.
WHO WINS?
The common perception is that these two teams have plenty in common. In reality, they don’t.
Out of the entire competition, St Kilda is ranked fifth for disposals, while Sydney is ranked 16th. But the Swans average the most contested possessions per game, whereas the Saints average the least. St Kilda is ranked fifth for marks and the Swans are ranked last. However Sydney averages the most clearances and St Kilda averages the least.
Most believe Goodes and Mumford are the keys to Sydney winning this game. But perhaps its biggest wildcard on Saturday night will be Gary Rohan. The 20-year-old has been in terrific touch over the past fortnight, booting five goals from 12 and 16 touches respectively. With electric pace and a large trick bag, Rohan seems like he’s born for September.
But the Saints have their own wildcard. Last weekend, Stephen Milne showed why opposition teams can’t afford to give him a lot of space. The small forward only had nine touches, but three of them were goals. Milne’s record in finals is appalling. It’s time to stand up ‘tip rat’!
Sydney will have plenty of motivation to win this game. In last year’s semi-final, the Swans surrendered a five-goal lead to the Bulldogs and wasted golden opportunity to go through to the next round. That loss hurt the club – and it wants revenge.
However it’s hard to ignore the home ground advantage here. The Saints will thrive at Etihad Stadium, the ground they play better than any other team in the competition.
BEST BET:
St Kilda by 1-24 ($3.25)
Carlton v Essendon: Sunday 11/9 – 2.40pm at MCG.
With two traditional rivals – who downright don’t like each other – going head-to-head, the MCG is set to turn into an electricity power plant on Sunday afternoon with so much buzz around.
RECENT FORM:
Two losses to two top eight teams in the past fortnight was not the way Carlton wanted to go into the first week of the finals.
The Blues played with caution and little flare – probably because they had nothing to play for – against St Kilda last weekend, eventually going down by 20 points. They only kicked nine goals from 424 possessions and laid only 42 tackles (they’ve averaged 70 per game this season). On a positive note though, big Setanta o’hAilpan booted four goals in a lone hand effort up forward, while Chris Yarran’s dare and dash off half-back kept the Blues in the game.
Will Essendon be advantaged or disadvantaged by the bye last weekend? Only time will tell.
Nonetheless, 2011 has been a rollercoaster yet successful season for the Bombers. Preseason, no one expected them to feature in the finals. But they’ve proven almost everyone wrong. The Bombers have won more games this season than in any other year for the past seven. A big reason behind that is due to the form of skipper Jobe Watson and the emergence of young midfielders such as Jake Melksham, Ben Howlett, David Zaharakis and the 2011 Rising Star Dyson Heppell.
WHO WINS?
When these two teams meet, literally anything is possible.
Normally, it’s a close encounter (see the draw in Round 4 this season). However Carlton broke the trend in Round 18, thumping the Bombers by 74 points. Eddie Betts kicked eight goals, Andrew Walker took a contender for mark of the year and Chris Judd played his finest game in a Carlton jumper.
But surely we won’t see a repeat of that on Sunday.
Out of all eight teams in the finals, Carlton is undoubtedly under the most pressure. Sunday’s match will be its third consecutive elimination final, and it’ll be keen to make sure it won’t be it’s third consecutive elimination final loss.
Two men who can help the Blues avoid defeat is Betts and Jeff Garlett. Both players have been out of form over the past fortnight, booting just two goals between them. It’s no secret Essendon don’t have the small defenders to go with Betts and Garlett, so both men need to expose that flaw.
However, the Bombers will know they’re risk and reward game style makes the Blues nervy. They know they match up well against the Blues. They know they have nothing to lose. They know they may have a mental edge.
The key for Essendon is to stop Carlton’s midfield. The Blues are ranked second in the league for clearances, so the Bombers must restrict the influence of Judd, Marc Murphy and Mitch Robinson around the stoppages. And if Watson can get his hands on the footy, they’re halfway to victory.
But the Blues have earned too much respect this season to drop this game. The two finals defeats to Brisbane (2009) and Sydney (2010) will drive them to make it third time lucky.
Carlton is ready to take the next step.
BEST BET:
Carlton by 1-39 ($2.20)
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