2011 AFL Season Betting Preview – Part 3
HAWTHORN Premiership Odds $7.50
The underachievers of the past two seasons have been solidly backed to be the main challengers to Collingwood in 2011. In Franklin and Roughead they have a strong double barrel forward line but Roughead’s conversion rate and Franklins inconsistency are major worries. Sewell and Mitchell in midfield are major ball winners but neither is blessed with an abundance of pace and the Hawk’s chances will be enhanced if they can get some good time throught the middle from Rioli and Burgoyne. David Hale should be an important addition to a ruck division which has been a little undermanned and the Hawk’s have plenty of toughness around the pack through the likes of Hodge, Osborne, Bateman and Guerra.
The backline does remain a query with Gibson struggling to contain the power forwards. Stratton looks a fine up and comer but plenty have suffered from second year blues before him and the Hawks will miss the poise and experience of Cam Brown.
You can bet on: To Make The Final 8 @ $1.25 – I’d like to be able to back the Hawks to miss the Top 4 but am confident they will finish 5-8. Short odds but likely to get the chocolates.
MELBOURNE Premiership Odds $26.00
The Dees improved plenty last season and have a fair degree of confidence that they will play finals football in 2011. Unfortunately for their supporters they need to take an extra step and don’t look like they have the class. Sure Scully and Trengrove were excellent in their first seasons but it’s always tougher in the second year and with Green getting older and Bruce departing both are likely to experience some solid tags. Davey has plenty of class but his hamstrings make him a risk of missing chunks of the season. Jurrah is a wildcard but must become more consistent and Watts doesn’t look like becoming the player that his under age reputation foretold. The Demons have plenty of endeavour but a lack of pace accross the park is what will bring them undone. Expect a finish from 9-12.
You can bet on: To Miss The 8 @ $1.85 – Sorry Demon supporters there’s just not enough improvement there nor a gameplan that can blow the opponents away.
NORTH MELBOURNE Premiership Odds $51
The Kangas team spirit can never be underestimated but they head into 2011 with a long injury list. That will make it tough from the outset as they’re not overburdened with depth and it is likely their confidence will suffer. The Roos have relied heavily on Brent Harvey but it’s too much to expect him to be the major ball winner in his twighlight years and they need so much more from the enigmatic Daniel Wells. Hamish McIntyre is a fine ruckmen but it’s hard to see the midfield consistently getting centre breaks, even if he dominates. The Roos have plenty of promising youngsters but not enough star quality.
You can bet on: Wooden Spoon @ $12 – There’s plenty saying the spoon will be a battle between the two Queensland sides but North will be right in the mix. Take a punt at the value.
PORT ADELAIDE Premiership Odds $81
The Power are an enigma. While at times they can look insipid there was enough glimpses from some of their youngsters to suggest they could improve a little in 2011 under new coach Matthew Primus. If the Power can get some consistency into the likes of Pearce, Hitchcock, Daniel Motlop and Davenport they will cause plenty of sides plenty of problems. Westhoff and jay Schultz have promised plenty during their careers without ever really delivering consistently but do have the ability to be a handful for opposition defences. Expect the Power to be somewhere around the middle of the table and maybe even scrape into the eight.
You can bet on: Brownlow Medal – Travis Boak @ $126 – Ran seventh last season and is at huge odds to do better this year. I expect Port to win a few more games so Boak may well be worth something small each way.162 views