2011 AFL Grand Final Preview and Betting Tips
Collingwood v Geelong: Saturday 1/10 – 2.30pm at MCG.
It’s here – finally. The big daddy of them all. And fittingly, the two best teams of the 2011 season will headline the AFL’s main event.
RECENT FORM:
The first preliminary final was a night of tears, frustration and memories for Collingwood – luckily it was on the right side of the ledger when the final siren sounded.
The Magpies were almost pushed to the point of no return, but a 5.2 to 2.0 final term ensured they snatched a dramatic three-point win over a gallant Hawthorn right at the death. They were lucky to win for all sorts of reasons, but mainly due to the Hawks’ inaccurate kicking for goal and injuries suffered throughout the game. Coach Mick Malthouse knew his team had escaped jail and shed tears of raw emotion after the game, knowing he had one more game left as Collingwood coach.
A few standout players pushed Collingwood over the line in the final term. Travis Cloke was colossal, booting three goals from 11 marks and eight inside 50’s, Dane Swan literally ran the whole night to end up with 32 touches (18 contested) and a miracle goal, and Luke Ball and Scott Pendlebury were instrumental through the middle.
While Collingwood fans were forced into a cardiac arrest on Friday night, Geelong supporters hit the dance floor instead, with their team cruising to one of the easiest finals victories you’ll ever see.
The Cats produced a dominant 7.3 third term to run out comfortable 48-point winners over a tired West Coast outfit. After an inaccurate start in front of goal, the Cats booted 10 of 13 goals in the second and third term to take an unassailable 56-point lead into the last change. They had 12 individual goal kickers, with James Podsiasly leading the way with three.
Veteran full-back Matthew Scarlett was outstanding for Geelong when the game was on the line, repeatedly cutting off the Eagles’ attacking thrusts and rebounding from defensive 50 with aggression. Andrew Mackie (27 touches) also did a great job floating across half-back, while James Kelly (29 with 13 contested) and Joel Selwood (25 and eight clearances) were brilliant in the engine room.
HOW COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
As skipper Nick Maxwell said during the week, the Pies need to become less predictable going inside forward 50. They can’t just bomb the ball in and hope Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes will clunk marks. Why? Because they won’t. Geelong’s backline is more organised than the 2000 Sydney Olympics and will punish you for poor delivery.
Therefore, someone must play on six-time All-Australian Matthew Scarlett and force him to be accountable. Someone like Steele Sidebottom as a small, or Leigh Brown as the tall, might have to play a sacrificial role on the Cats champ, because he can’t be allowed to roam free as the quarterback of the backline.
HOW GEELONG CAN WIN:
One thing certainly in Geelong’s favour is its 2011 record over the Black and White army. The Cats have played and beaten Collingwood twice – and those were the Magpies’ only losses of the season. On both occasions, Chris Scott’s men dominated the inside 50 count and made the normally unflappable Pies defence look vulnerable. Brad Ottens dominated in the ruck in both matches and with Darren Jolly under a fitness cloud and Trent West now providing excellent back-up, the Cats will look to dominate in that area.
Also Cameron Ling must make Swan, Pendlebury, Ball or Dale Thomas accountable. Most would say Ling should go to Brownlow medallist Swan, but if Pendlebury isn’t getting the footy, the Pies are less likely to win due to the quality of his possessions.
SO, WHO WINS?
This isn’t just a Grand Final to determine the champion team of 2011. This is a Grand Final to determine the best team of the modern era.
Barring St Kilda, Collingwood and Geelong have been the two standout teams over the past five to six years. To have stayed in the top four for so long is a credit to both clubs’ football departments and playing lists.
Having said that, both teams have plenty to lose on Saturday. If the Cats fall short, they would’ve failed to win a premiership in three seasons in which they went 21-1, 20-2, and 17-5 in the home-and-away rounds. But if the Pies lose, they would’ve wasted one of the most dominant home-and-away seasons in history, after being as short as $2 favourites for the flag.
Amazingly, Saturday’s match will be the Cats’ fourth Grand Final in five years, after winning in 2007 and 2009 and famously losing in 2008. As Meatloaf once sang, ‘two out of three ain’t bad’, but the Cats will know three out of four is even better.
But this Collingwood group certainly knows what it takes to win a Grand Final. In fact they had to play two in 2010 to get the ultimate AFL prize, so that experience will give them confidence.
The midfield battle will be electric: Swan, Pendlebury, Ball, Thomas and Wellingham versus Selwood, Bartel, Kelly, Chapman and Ling. Both teams have solid back lines who work well together as units. The Pies might be slightly ahead up forward, but Tom Hawkins’ form over the past couple of weeks has been promising.
There will be plenty of great stories if either team gets up: Andrew Krakouer’s journey from jail to grand final glory, Leon Davis’ rejuvenation in defence, Trent West’s arrival as a genuine ruckman, Chris Scott’s sensational first year as senior coach, and Michael Malthouse’s sensational final year as senior coach. Newspaper writers must be licking their lips thinking about the potential plots.
After such long periods of success, both teams will go into this game with outstanding self-belief in their own ability, mental strength and tactics.
But you get the feeling there’s one last hoorah left in this champion Geelong team.
Three-time premiership coach Leigh Matthews says a team’s form over the four weeks prior to a match is a true representation of where they are at. Anything before that is history.
If we simply isolate the past four weeks, Collingwood has lost the energetic tenaciousness that saw it consistently overwhelm opponent after opponent for the majority of the last two seasons.
Conversely, the Cats have probably been the most in-form team over the past three weeks. They’ve accounted for two genuine finals contenders – Hawthorn and West Coast – with relative ease, while the Pies have had to struggle right to the finish line against the same pair to earn the same results over the same teams.
Twelve months ago, many had written off Geelong, marking them as a team at the end of their era and ready for decline. But they’ve peaked at the right time. They’re in sensational shape and back to their best. Coach Chris Scott has his boys trained to the minute.
Tipping Geelong to win a classic Grand Final and cement its spot as one of the greatest teams in the history of our great game.
BEST BET:
Geelong by 1-24 ($3.55)
NORM SMITH MEDAL:
Jimmy Bartel ($10) – The 27-year-old is made for the big stage and is set for a big game. He has never been able to reach the heights of his Brownlow medal year of 2007, but you get the feeling he’s going to have a real impact. Expect Bartel to win plenty of contested ball and kick a couple of crucial goals to get the Cats over the line.
FIRST GOAL SCORER:
Paul Chapman ($21)
Recent Comments